Heracles Almelo - SBV Vitesse Arnhem prediction 26 September 2026

The Heracles Almelo vs SBV Vitesse Arnhem prediction for this 1 Eerste Divisie match on Sep 26 at 15:30 points to a home win. Heracles Almelo has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and SBV Vitesse Arnhem has a 24% chance. The league leaders are in strong form and have a clear advantage at home.

Team Form

Heracles Almelo come into this match with four wins in their last five games (W, W, W, W, L). Their most recent result was a 1-0 away loss to Almere City on Sep 18. Before that, they scored 17 goals across three home wins against Jong AZ Alkmaar (3-2), De Graafschap (5-0), and away at FC Eindhoven (3-1) and Jong FC Utrecht (6-1).

SBV Vitesse Arnhem have three wins and two losses in their last five (W, L, W, W, L). They beat Jong PSV Eindhoven 3-1 at home on Sep 19, but lost 1-0 away to Roda JC Kerkrade on Sep 12. Earlier results include a 2-1 home win over Oss and a 4-1 away win at Den Bosch, but a heavy 3-0 home loss to Almere City.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last 17 meetings, SBV Vitesse Arnhem have dominated with 10 wins, while Heracles Almelo have 2 wins and 5 draws. The most recent match was on Feb 10, 2024, when Heracles Almelo won 3-2 at home in the Eredivisie. Before that, SBV Vitesse Arnhem won 2-0 at home on Dec 10, 2023. The three prior meetings include a 0-0 draw in 2022 and two SBV Vitesse Arnhem wins in 2021.

League Table Positions

Heracles Almelo sit 1st in the 1 Eerste Divisie with 18 points from 7 matches (6 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 24 goals and conceded 10. At home, they are 2nd with a perfect record: 3 wins from 3, 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. Away, they are also 2nd with 9 points from 4 games.

SBV Vitesse Arnhem are 5th with 13 points from 7 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 13 and conceding 9. At home they rank 8th with 7 points from 4 games; away they are 6th with 6 points from 3 games (7 scored, 3 conceded). The gap between the teams is 5 points.

Win Probability: Heracles Almelo or SBV Vitesse Arnhem?

Based on the available odds, form, and league positions, Heracles Almelo has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and SBV Vitesse Arnhem has a 24% chance. The calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (home 1.50, draw 2.58, away 4.20), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusted for Heracles Almelo's stronger recent form and top position in the table. Home advantage further supports the favorite. SBV Vitesse Arnhem's superior head-to-head record (10 wins to 2) prevents a wider gap, but current form and standings make Heracles Almelo the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Heracles Almelo as the clear favorite. The best available odds are 1.50 for a home win, 2.58 for the draw, and 4.20 for an away win. Based on the stats, the prediction is a home win for Heracles Almelo. Their attacking form at home (11 goals in 3 games) and SBV Vitesse Arnhem's inconsistency on the road suggest the league leaders will secure three points.