FC Koln Women - SC Freiburg Women prediction 3 October 2026

This FC Koln Women vs SC Freiburg Women prediction for the Bundesliga Women clash on October 3, 2026 (kick-off 15:00) answers who will win and provides the essential betting tips. Based on our deep dive into the form, head-to-head record, and league table, FC Koln Women enter this match as the clear favorite with a 48% win probability, while the draw sits at 27% and SC Freiburg Women have a 25% chance. Read on for the full statistical breakdown.

Team Form

FC Koln Women’s recent form shows a record of L-W-W-W-L across their last five Bundesliga Women matches. Their home performances have been rock-solid this season: they have won both home games without conceding a single goal (3-0 against Union Berlin Women and 1-0 against TSG 1899 Hoffenheim Women). That perfect home defensive record is a key factor in this prediction.

SC Freiburg Women’s last five results read L-W-L-W-D. While they have managed two home wins in that run, their away form is a real concern. In two away trips, they are winless – a 4-1 defeat at Bayern Munich Women and a 1-1 draw at Hamburger SV Women. They have scored just twice on the road and conceded five times, leaving them with only one away point from a possible six.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head numbers favour the away side historically: from 14 meetings across all venues, the home team has won only twice, there have been five draws, and the away team has emerged victorious seven times. However, the most recent five meetings paint a more balanced picture, with two wins apiece and one draw. Notably, the latest fixture – on January 24, 2026 – saw FC Koln Women beat SC Freiburg Women 1-0 at this very ground, which gives the hosts a psychological edge.

League Table Positions

After five matchdays, FC Koln Women sit 5th in the Bundesliga Women table with 9 points from three wins and two defeats (goals 10-7). Their home record is flawless: 2 wins, 4 goals scored, 0 conceded. SC Freiburg Women are three places below them in 8th with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 7-7 goal difference). Away from home they have collected just 1 point and have the league’s 8th-best away record, while FC Koln Women boast the 4th-best home showing. The table underlines the home advantage.

Win Probability: FC Koln Women or SC Freiburg Women?

After normalising our assessment using current form, head-to-head data, home/away factors, and league positions, the win probability for this match is as follows:

• FC Koln Women win – 48%
• Draw – 27%
• SC Freiburg Women win – 25%

FC Koln Women’s perfect home record and clean sheets give them the highest chance. SC Freiburg Women’s struggles on the road and the fact they have failed to win any away game this season significantly lower their probability. The historical away-team bias in this fixture is the only counter-argument, but current form outweighs it. A home win is the most likely match outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

At the time of writing, specific 1X2 odds for this Bundesliga Women fixture have not been released by bookmakers. Once the markets are available, the probabilities suggest that FC Koln Women will be priced as favourites, with a draw and an away win seen as less likely outcomes. Our betting tip based on the stats is to back the home win, but always check the latest odds and team news before placing a bet. The final match prediction reads: FC Koln Women 2-1 SC Freiburg Women – the home side's solid defence meets a Freiburg attack that may grab a consolation goal, but the hosts should have enough quality to take all three points.