SC Villa - Express FC prediction 9 September 2026
SC Villa
Express FCSC Villa
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bul FC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:4 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:3 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 |  NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:4 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 |  Entebbe | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7:2 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  Blacks Power/Bukedea TC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 |  Vipers SC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:2 | +11 | 11 |
| 7 |  Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13:8 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Kampala Capital City Authority | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  UPDF FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Lugazi Municipal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Express FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 |  Mbarara City FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |  URA FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:13 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 |  Kataka FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4:17 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 |  Kigezi Homeboys (Kabale Sharp) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 |
SC Villa vs Express FC Prediction (Sep 09)
The SC Villa vs Express FC prediction for the match on Sep 09 at 13:00 in the Uganda Premier League points to SC Villa as the favorite, with a 63% chance of winning. Bookmakers and recent form both back the home side, making them the most likely winner in this Kampala derby.
Team Form
SC Villa come into this match with a solid recent record: W, D, D, L, W in their last five matches across all competitions. Their last Premier League outing was a 1-0 away win against URA FC on Sep 04, preceded by a 1-1 home draw with Kitara FC. Express FC have been more inconsistent, posting W, L, L, D, W in their last five. They won 2-0 at home against Kampala Capital City Authority on Sep 03, but lost 1-0 away to Bul FC just before that. SC Villa's form appears slightly more stable heading into this fixture.
Head-to-Head Record
Historically, SC Villa have dominated this matchup. In 26 head-to-head meetings, SC Villa have 13 wins, Express FC have 5, and 8 matches ended in a draw. The most recent clash on Mar 07, 2026, finished 0-0 at SC Villa. Before that, SC Villa won 1-0 away on Jan 08, 2026, and 1-0 at home on Feb 15, 2025. The H2H trend clearly favors the home side.
League Table Positions
In the current Premier League standings, SC Villa sit 5th overall with 4 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses; goals 2:1). Express FC are 6th with 3 points from 2 matches (1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss; goals 2:1). In the home table, SC Villa are 8th with 1 point from 1 game. Express FC appear in the away table: they have not yet played an away league match this season, so their away form remains untested.
Win Probability: SC Villa or Express FC?
Based on odds, form, H2H record, and home advantage, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:
- SC Villa win: 63%
- Draw: 22%
- Express FC win: 15%
We derived these by averaging the inverse of the available 1X2 odds (home ~1.44, draw ~3.19, away ~7.58), normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, and adjusting for SC Villa's home advantage and dominant head-to-head record (13 wins vs 5). The home team's stronger recent form and Express FC's lack of away league data further support SC Villa as the clear favorite. A draw is the second most probable outcome, while an Express FC win is unlikely given the historical pattern and odds.
Odds & Match Prediction
Available bookmaker odds for this match show SC Villa as a strong favorite:
- Home win odds: 1.36, 1.46, and 1.49 across three bookmakers
- Draw odds: 2.08, 3.70, and 3.80
- Away win odds: 7.10, 7.50, and 8.14
The average home win price around 1.44 implies a probability above 60%, while Express FC at over 7.00 are clear outsiders. Taking into account the stats and H2H dominance, the SC Villa vs Express FC prediction is a home win. A 1-0 scoreline, similar to two of the last three H2H meetings, appears a plausible outcome.
SC Villa vs Express FC โ FAQ
- Who will win SC Villa vs Express FC?
- Based on odds and team data, SC Villa has a 63% probability of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Express FC has a 15% chance. SC Villa's dominant head-to-head record and home advantage make them the clear favorite.
- What is the win probability for SC Villa?
- SC Villa has a 63% chance of winning this match, according to our analysis. This is based on average bookmaker odds of 1.44 for a home win, adjusted for their 13 H2H wins against Express FC and current league form.
- When is the SC Villa vs Express FC match?
- The match is scheduled for Sep 09, 2026, at 13:00 local time. It is a Uganda Premier League fixture.
- What are the odds for SC Villa vs Express FC?
- Odds from three bookmakers show SC Villa home win prices at 1.36, 1.46, and 1.49; the draw at 2.08, 3.70, and 3.80; and an Express FC away win at 7.10, 7.50, and 8.14.