SC Villa - Mbarara City FC prediction 22 October 2026
SC Villa
Mbarara City FCSC VillaMbarara City FC
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bul FC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:4 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:3 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 |  NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:4 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 |  Entebbe | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7:2 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  Blacks Power/Bukedea TC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 |  Vipers SC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:2 | +11 | 11 |
| 7 |  Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13:8 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Kampala Capital City Authority | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  UPDF FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Lugazi Municipal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |  Express FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Mbarara City FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |  URA FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:13 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 |  Kataka FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4:17 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 |  Kigezi Homeboys (Kabale Sharp) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 |
SC Villa vs Mbarara City FC Prediction (Oct 22)
The SC Villa vs Mbarara City FC prediction for October 22, 2026, points firmly towards a home victory in the Uganda Premier League. Following an analysis of current form, head-to-head history, and league positions, SC Villa has a 75% win probability, while a draw is at 18% and an away win for Mbarara City FC sits at just 7%.
Team Form
SC Villa heads into this clash in outstanding shape, with four wins and one draw in their last five league outings. Their most recent resultโa stunning 6-1 away victory against Uganda Police on October 14โhighlighted their attacking firepower. Earlier results include a 1-1 draw at Kataka FC, a 3-0 home win over Kigezi Homeboys, a 2-0 home success against Express FC, and a 1-0 triumph at URA FC. The side has scored 14 goals and conceded only 3 across their last six matches.
Mbarara City FCโs form, in contrast, is worrying. The team has managed just one win in its last five matches (W1 D2 L2) and has failed to score in three of those games. A 2-1 home win over Blacks Power on October 11 broke a winless run, but away defeats at Ntugasaze (0-1) and Uganda Police (0-1), plus goalless home draws with Entebbe and NEC Bugolobi, paint a picture of a side struggling for goals and consistency.
Head-to-Head Record
History heavily favors SC Villa. In 15 previous home encounters, SC Villa has won 10, drawn 1, and lost only 4 to Mbarara City FC. Recent meetings underline this dominance: SC Villa walloped Mbarara City FC 6-1 at home in January 2026 and won 3-1 away in May 2026. The only recent blemish was a 0-0 draw in November 2023, but overall the H2H record demonstrates SC Villaโs clear upper hand.
League Table Positions
SC Villa sits 2nd in the Premier League table with 14 points from 6 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), boasting the second-best attack (14 goals) and one of the tightest defences (3 conceded). Mbarara City FC does not appear in the top 12 overall, signaling a season of difficulty. At home, SC Villa ranks 2nd with 7 points from 3 games, while Mbarara City FCโs away form is weakโtwo losses in their last two road trips. The gap in quality and points is considerable.
Win Probability: SC Villa or Mbarara City FC?
Based on the available data, SC Villa holds a 75% chance of winning this fixture, a draw has an 18% probability, and Mbarara City FC has just a 7% chance. This calculation considers SC Villa's flawless unbeaten run, their dominant H2H record at home, and a league position that contrasts sharply with their opponentโs struggles. The home advantage further tilts the odds in SC Villa's favor.
Odds & Match Prediction
No bookmaker odds are available in the data, but the statistical evidence is overwhelming. SC Villaโs attacking form, Mbarara City FCโs scoring drought, and the historical dominance all suggest a comfortable home win is the most likely outcome. Our SC Villa vs Mbarara City FC prediction therefore leans strongly towards a home victory, with SC Villa expected to control the match and create multiple scoring opportunities.
SC Villa vs Mbarara City FC โ FAQ
- Who will win SC Villa vs Mbarara City FC?
- SC Villa is the clear favorite. Our win probability calculation gives SC Villa a 75% chance of winning, a draw 18%, and Mbarara City FC only 7%. This is based on SC Villa's excellent form, dominant head-to-head record at home, and a far superior league position.
- What is the win probability for SC Villa?
- SC Villa has a 75% chance of securing all three points on October 22. This high probability reflects their unbeaten league run, the 14 goals scored in six matches, and the fact they have won 10 of the last 15 home meetings against Mbarara City FC.
- When is the SC Villa vs Mbarara City FC match?
- The match is scheduled for October 22, 2026, with kick-off at 14:00 local time. It takes place in the Uganda Premier League.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Bookmaker odds are not currently available for this fixture. However, given SC Villaโs strong home record and Mbarara City FCโs poor recent away performances, any odds released would likely price SC Villa as a heavy favorite.
- What is the head-to-head record between SC Villa and Mbarara City FC?
- In 15 home matches against Mbarara City FC, SC Villa has 10 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses. The most recent encounter ended in a 3-1 away win for SC Villa in May 2026, and the previous home meeting saw SC Villa triumph 6-1 in January 2026.