Uganda Police - SC Villa prediction 14 October 2026

The Uganda Police vs SC Villa prediction for October 14, 2026, in the Uganda Premier League points to an away win. SC Villa enters the match as the favorite with a 45% chance of victory, while Uganda Police has a 20% probability and the draw stands at 35%. The match kicks off at 14:00 local time.

Team Form

Uganda Police have been inconsistent in their last five matches, recording two wins, one draw, and two losses (W2 D1 L2). Their most recent outing was a 3-0 defeat away to Entebbe on October 9. Before that, they beat Lugazi Municipal 2-0, drew 0-0 with UPDF FC, lost 1-0 to Blacks Power/Bukedea TC, and edged Mbarara City FC 1-0 at home. At home this season, they have one win and one draw from two games, scoring once and conceding none.

SC Villa, on the other hand, are unbeaten in their last five (W3 D2). They drew 1-1 with Kataka FC on October 7, thrashed Kigezi Homeboys 3-0, beat Express FC 2-0, won 1-0 at URA FC, and drew 1-1 with Kitara FC. Away from home, they have collected four points from two matches (1W 1D), scoring twice and conceding once.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors SC Villa. In 20 previous meetings, Uganda Police have won just once at home, with 12 draws and 7 away wins for SC Villa. The last five encounters: Uganda Police 1-0 SC Villa (Mar 10, 2026), SC Villa 2-1 Uganda Police (Oct 24, 2025), Uganda Police 1-3 SC Villa (May 11, 2025), SC Villa 1-1 Uganda Police (Dec 13, 2024), and a 0-0 draw on May 2, 2022. SC Villa have lost only one of the last five H2H matches.

League Table Positions

SC Villa sit 3rd in the Premier League with 11 points from 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). They have scored 8 goals and conceded only 2. Uganda Police are 9th with 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 3 and conceding 4. The gap in both points and goal difference underlines SC Villa's stronger campaign so far.

Win Probability: Uganda Police or SC Villa?

Based on odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: Uganda Police 20%, Draw 35%, SC Villa 45%. The bookmakers' odds implied a draw as the most likely outcome, but SC Villa's excellent recent form (unbeaten in five) and dominant H2H record (7 away wins) tilt the balance in their favor. Uganda Police's home advantage is modest, and they have struggled for consistency. Therefore, SC Villa has the highest chance of winning this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds around 3.60 for a Uganda Police win, 1.95 for a draw, and 2.75 for an SC Villa victory. These odds suggest the market sees a draw as the most probable result. However, our analysis adjusts for SC Villa's superior form and head-to-head dominance, making an away win the best prediction. Uganda Police vs SC Villa prediction: SC Villa to win, with a draw as a strong secondary possibility.