SE Belford Roxo RJ - Santa Cruz FC RJ prediction 1 October 2026

Our SE Belford Roxo RJ vs Santa Cruz FC RJ prediction for this Campeonato Carioca. Serie B2 match on Oct 1 at 19:00 points to an away win. Based on the odds, form, and head-to-head record, Santa Cruz FC RJ enters the match as the favorite with a 44% win probability, while SE Belford Roxo RJ has a 30% chance and the draw sits at 26%.

Team Form

SE Belford Roxo RJ's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they recorded one win, two draws, and two losses. They lost 1-2 at home to Cardoso Moreira RJ on Sep 20 and drew 0-0 at home with Rio de Janeiro RJ on Sep 6. An away 4-0 win against SE Paraty RJ on Aug 30 showed their potential, but they also suffered a 1-2 home loss to Goytacaz FC RJ and a 0-0 away draw at Goytacaz FC RJ in November 2025.

Santa Cruz FC RJ comes into this match in excellent form with four wins and one draw in their last five outings. They secured a 1-0 home win over Cardoso Moreira RJ on Sep 27, a 3-1 away victory at Rio de Janeiro RJ on Sep 21, and a 3-0 home win against SE Buzios RJ on Sep 13. A 2-0 home win over 7 De Abril RJ on Aug 30 and a 2-2 home draw with Macae in November 2025 complete their strong recent run.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met only once before, and Santa Cruz FC RJ holds the advantage. On Oct 12, 2025, in the Campeonato Carioca. Serie B2, Santa Cruz FC RJ won 3-2 away at SE Belford Roxo RJ. The head-to-head record stands at 0 wins for SE Belford Roxo RJ, 0 draws, and 1 win for Santa Cruz FC RJ.

League Table Positions

Santa Cruz FC RJ sits top of the overall league table with 12 points from 5 matches, having won 4, drawn 0, and lost 1, with a goal difference of +7 (9 scored, 2 conceded). SE Belford Roxo RJ is in 7th place with 6 points from 5 matches, recording 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal difference of +3 (9 scored, 6 conceded). The 6-point gap highlights the visitors' stronger campaign so far. At home, Santa Cruz FC RJ has a perfect record with 3 wins from 3, scoring 6 and conceding 0. SE Belford Roxo RJ's away form shows 1 win and 2 draws from 3 matches, with 8 goals scored and 4 conceded.

Win Probability: SE Belford Roxo RJ or Santa Cruz FC RJ?

After analyzing the available data, we assign the following win probabilities: SE Belford Roxo RJ has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 26%, and Santa Cruz FC RJ has a 44% chance. This calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.85, draw 3.10, away 2.25) to derive an initial implied probability, which is then normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. We then adjust for Santa Cruz FC RJ's superior form (4 wins in 5 vs 1 win in 5), their head-to-head victory, and their top position in the league table compared to SE Belford Roxo RJ's 7th place. While SE Belford Roxo RJ has home advantage, the visitors' strong defensive record and winning momentum make them the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Santa Cruz FC RJ as the favorite. The best available odds for this match are: SE Belford Roxo RJ win at 2.85, a draw at 3.10, and a Santa Cruz FC RJ win at 2.25. Based on the stats, form, and league positions, the value may lie with the away win, but the home side's ability to draw matches (3 of their last 5) cannot be ignored. Our prediction is that Santa Cruz FC RJ is the most likely winner, but a cautious approach is advised given SE Belford Roxo RJ's resilience.