SE Paraty RJ - Rio de Janeiro RJ prediction 5 October 2026

SE Paraty RJ vs Rio de Janeiro RJ prediction for October 5, 2026, in the Campeonato Carioca Serie B2. Based on our analysis, Rio de Janeiro RJ is the favorite with a 50% win probability, while SE Paraty RJ has just a 20% chance, and the draw stands at 30%. The match kicks off at 19:00 local time.

Team Form

SE Paraty RJ are in a deep crisis, losing all five of their recent matches. They fell 2-3 to SE Buzios, 0-3 to Paduano, 0-1 to 7 De Abril, 1-4 to Friburguense, and 1-2 to Campos. Over those five games, they conceded 13 goals and scored only 4, highlighting defensive frailties and a lack of cutting edge.

Rio de Janeiro RJ have been inconsistent, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five. They beat Barra Mansa 2-0 at home, lost 1-2 to Serra Macaense, 1-3 to Santa Cruz, 0-1 to Cardoso Moreira, and drew 0-0 with SE Belford Roxo. The clean sheet against Belford Roxo and the home win show they can be solid, but away form remains a concern.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, on September 22, 2025, in the same competition. SE Paraty RJ won that match 2-0 at home. While that gives them a historical edge, current form suggests a very different context.

League Table Positions

SE Paraty RJ sit bottom of the 12-team table with 0 points from 6 matches (0 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses). They have scored 4 goals and conceded 17, the worst goal difference in the league. Rio de Janeiro RJ are 8th with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses) and a balanced 7:7 goal record. The 7-point gap and the contrasting goal differences underline the visitors' superiority this season.

Win Probability: SE Paraty RJ or Rio de Janeiro RJ?

After analyzing odds, form, head-to-head, and table positions, we assign the following win probabilities:

• SE Paraty RJ win: 20%
• Draw: 30%
• Rio de Janeiro RJ win: 50%

The bookmakers' average odds imply a 40% chance for Rio de Janeiro, but SE Paraty's six straight defeats and last-place standing push the away win probability higher. Home advantage has been non-existent for SE Paraty, who have lost all their home games. The only counterargument is the 2-0 H2H win, but that was over a year ago and cannot outweigh the current gulf in form and league position. Therefore, Rio de Janeiro RJ are the clear favorites to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this fixture. A SE Paraty home win is priced between 3.10 and 3.75, a draw between 2.30 and 3.45, and a Rio de Janeiro away win between 1.95 and 2.50. These odds reflect the market's view of Rio de Janeiro as the likely winner, with the draw also seen as a realistic outcome.

Based on the stats, our prediction is a Rio de Janeiro RJ victory. SE Paraty's defensive record and lack of points make it hard to back them, even with home advantage. A low-scoring away win is the most probable scenario.