Seoul - Jeju United prediction 10 October 2026

Seoul vs Jeju United prediction: The K-League 1 clash on October 10, 2026, at 06:00 features table-topping Seoul hosting third-placed Jeju United. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head stats, Seoul has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Jeju United holds a 25% win probability.

Team Form

Seoul's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches across all competitions, they recorded two wins and three losses (L, L, W, L, W). They suffered a 2-1 defeat at Pohang Steelers on September 20 and a 1-0 home loss to Persib Bandung in the AFC Champions League Two on September 16, but bounced back with a 2-1 win at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors on September 12. A 1-0 loss at Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i on September 8 was followed by a 1-0 home victory over Incheon United on September 5.

Jeju United, on the other hand, are unbeaten in their last five outings (W, D, W, D, W). They secured a 1-0 away win at Gangwon FC on September 20, drew 2-2 at Bucheon FC 1995 on September 12, and beat Gwangju FC 1-0 away on September 9. A goalless home draw with Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i on September 5 and a 3-1 home win over Daejeon Citizen on August 30 complete their solid run.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between Seoul and Jeju United shows 9 Seoul wins, 6 draws, and 12 Jeju United victories. Recent meetings heavily favour the visitors: in the last five encounters, Jeju United won four times. The most recent match on May 9, 2026, ended Jeju United 2-1 Seoul. Earlier in 2026, on March 15, Seoul won 2-1 away. In 2025, Jeju United won 3-2 (July 23), 3-1 (May 31), and 2-0 (February 15).

League Table Positions

Seoul sit top of the K-League 1 with 62 points from 30 matches (19 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses). They have scored 56 goals and conceded 25. Jeju United are third with 46 points (12 wins, 10 draws, 8 losses), scoring 35 and conceding 29. At home, Seoul are also first with 26 points from 13 games (8 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Jeju United's away form is strong: they rank third in the away table with 24 points from 13 matches (7 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses).

Win Probability: Seoul or Jeju United?

Bookmakers' odds imply a Seoul win probability of around 48.6%, a draw at 34.3%, and a Jeju United win at 17.1% after removing the margin. However, adjusting for Jeju United's dominant recent head-to-head record (4 wins in the last 5) and their current five-match unbeaten streak, the probabilities shift. Seoul's home advantage and league-leading position keep them as favourites, but the gap narrows. Our calculated win probabilities are: Seoul 45%, draw 30%, Jeju United 25%. Seoul is more likely to win, but the draw and an away upset are realistic outcomes.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: Seoul win at 1.57, draw at 2.40, and Jeju United win at 5.00. Other bookmakers offer similar lines (home win around 1.60–1.62, draw 2.30–2.38, away win 4.50–4.60). Based on the stats, bookmakers see Seoul as the clear favourite. Our prediction: Seoul to win, but with caution given Jeju United's form. A draw is a strong possibility, and betting on Jeju United double chance could offer value.