Os Marialvas - Sertanense prediction 11 October 2026
Os Marialvas
Sertanense
FazendenseOs MarialvasChavesOs MarialvasOs MarialvasSertanenseAD OvarenseOs MarialvasGd NazarenosOs MarialvasOs MarialvasFatimaAD Fornos AlgodresOs MarialvasOs MarialvasOliveira HospitalAtletico MalveiraOs MarialvasSao Joao VerOs MarialvasJuventude Desportiva LajenseOs MarialvasOs MarialvasNaval 1893Mortagua FCOs MarialvasOs MarialvasUniao SerraOs MarialvasFatimaSertanenseFatimaOs MarialvasSertanenseO Elvas CADSertanenseSertanenseAtletico MalveiraSertanenseMortagua FCAD NogueirenseSertanenseUniao NogueirenseSertanenseBenfica Castelo BrancoSertanenseSertanenseAlcainsOs MarialvasSertanenseSertanenseMortagua FCArronches E BenficaSertanenseSertanenseO Elvas CADFatimaSertanenseSertanensePero PinheiroOs MarialvasSertanenseOs MarialvasSertanenseSertanenseOs Marialvas| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GD Chaves B | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | +5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Sporting Braga B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11:5 | +6 | 11 |
| 3 |  Limianos | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10:6 | +4 | 11 |
| 4 |  Braganca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7:4 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 |  Tirsense | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9:5 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |  Montalegre | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7:3 | +4 | 9 |
| 7 |  Vila Mea | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:3 | +4 | 8 |
| 8 |  CD Celoricense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 |  Rebordosa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2:3 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 |  AD Ponte da Barca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:8 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 |  Maria da Fonte | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:8 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 |  Brito | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4:12 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 |  Maia Lidador | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 2 |
| 14 |  Vinhais | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2:12 | -10 | 0 |
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense Prediction (Oct 11, 2026)
Our Os Marialvas vs Sertanense prediction for this Campeonato de Portugal clash on October 11, 2026, points firmly towards a home win. Based on recent form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, Os Marialvas enters as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while Sertanense struggles to find any consistent away form.
Team Form
Os Marialvas comes into this match in outstanding shape, having won four of their last five fixtures across all competitions. That run includes a 3-0 home victory over Fatima, a 0-3 away demolition of Gd Nazarenos, and two cup wins without conceding. Their only blip was a 1-2 home defeat to Oliveira Hospital back in August. The side is scoring freely and looks confident, especially at home.
Sertanense, on the other hand, is winless in their last five away matches (L D L D D). Most recently, they fell 2-0 at O Elvas CAD and could only manage a 1-1 draw away to Atletico Malveira earlier in September. Their only win in recent memory was a home draw, leaving them low on confidence when traveling.
Head-to-Head Record
The two teams have met twice previously. Os Marialvas won the most recent encounter 2-1 at home on March 29, 2025, while the earlier fixture ended in a 1-1 draw at Sertanense. Sertanense has never beaten Os Marialvas in a competitive match, giving the home side a psychological edge.
League Table Positions
Neither Os Marialvas nor Sertanense appears in the provided top 12 of the Campeonato de Portugal standings. This suggests both sides are positioned in the lower half of the table. However, Os Marialvasโ current four-match unbeaten streak in all competitions (since late August) indicates they are moving in the right direction.
Win Probability: Os Marialvas or Sertanense?
After analysing all available stats, Os Marialvas has a 50% chance of winning, the draw stands at 30%, and Sertanense holds a 20% chance. Bookmaker odds (home ~2.15, draw ~2.10, away ~5.00) reflect a tight contest, but the home sideโs dominant form and perfect head-to-head home record tip the balance. Sertanenseโs poor away form and inability to win on the road make an away victory unlikely.
Odds & Match Prediction
Checking the odds, bookmakers see Os Marialvas as the narrow favorite. You can find an average price of 2.15 for a home win, 2.10 for a draw, and around 5.00โ5.50 for a Sertanense win. Based on the stats, Os Marialvas is the most likely winner. The recommended pick is a home victory, especially given the visitorsโ travel woes.
Os Marialvas vs Sertanense โ FAQ
- Who will win Os Marialvas vs Sertanense?
- Os Marialvas is the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, followed by a 30% chance for a draw and only 20% for Sertanense. Os Marialvasโs four wins in five matches and unbeaten H2H record make them the more likely victor.
- What is the win probability for Os Marialvas?
- Os Marialvas has a 50% chance to win this match. This figure is driven by their strong recent form (W W W W L) and the fact Sertanense has never beaten them, including a 2-1 home win in their most recent meeting.
- When is the Os Marialvas vs Sertanense match?
- The Campeonato de Portugal fixture kicks off on October 11, 2026, at 15:00 local time. It is a league match from the 2026โ27 season.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Bookmakers price an Os Marialvas win at around 2.15, the draw at 2.10, and a Sertanense victory at odds of up to 5.50. The market suggests a tight encounter but gives the edge to the home side.