Thun - Servette prediction 16 September 2026

The Thun vs Servette prediction for this Super League match on Sep 16, 2026, points to a tight contest with a slight edge for the home side. Based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head history, Thun has a 35% chance of winning, the draw is also at 35%, and Servette sits at 30%. The match kicks off at 17:00 at Stockhorn Arena in Bern.

Team Form

Thun's last five matches across all venues show inconsistency. They recorded one win, two draws, and two defeats. Their most recent outing was a 0-1 home loss to Grasshoppers on Sep 12. Before that, they fell 3-2 away to Sion, drew 0-0 at home with Lausanne, won 4-3 at St. Gallen, and drew 0-0 at home with Servette. In that five-match spell, Thun scored six goals and conceded seven.

Servette's recent form is almost identical. In their last five fixtures, they managed one win, two draws, and two losses. They are coming off a 1-0 away victory at Lausanne on Sep 13. Prior to that, they lost 0-2 at home to St. Gallen, lost 1-0 away to Lugano, drew 1-1 at home against Luzern, and drew 0-0 away to Thun. Servette netted only two goals in those five games while conceding four.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head data strongly favors Thun. In the last five meetings between these teams, Thun won four times and there was one draw. Servette has not beaten Thun in this set of matches. The most recent encounter was the 0-0 stalemate in Thun on Aug 23, 2026. Before that, Thun won 3-1 away to Servette in February 2026, 1-0 away in November 2025, and 3-1 at home in October 2025. A 2021 cup tie also ended 4-1 to Thun at home. Thun have scored at least one goal in each of their four H2H victories.

League Table Positions

Both teams are struggling near the foot of the 12-team Super League table. Servette sit 9th with 7 points from 7 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), a goal difference of -3 (5 scored, 8 conceded). Thun are 10th, also with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) but a much poorer goal difference of -7 (11 scored, 18 conceded). Thun’s defensive record is the second-worst in the league, while Servette remain more compact. Home and away splits: Thun have yet to appear in the top eight home records, indicating weak home form. Servette’s away results are similar: their last five away games produced one win, two draws, and two losses.

Win Probability: Thun or Servette?

We calculated probabilities starting from the bookmaker odds (first listed odds: home 2.88, draw 2.45, away 2.58). The inverse of these odds, normalized to remove the margin, gave an initial baseline of Thun 30.4%, draw 35.7%, Servette 33.9%. Adjusting for Thun’s dominant H2H record (4 wins, 1 draw in last five) and the balanced recent form of both sides, we see slightly more value for the home team. The final probabilities are: Thun win – 35%, Draw – 35%, Servette win – 30%. This reflects Thun’s historical edge at home in this fixture, despite their current low league position and shaky defense. Servette’s chance is reduced mainly because they have never beaten Thun in the data provided.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see a very tight contest. The first set of pre-match odds shows home win at 2.88, draw at 2.45, and away win at 2.58. Other bookmakers in the list quote similarly narrow ranges (home as low as 2.50, away as high as 2.58). This confirms that the match is too close to call with conviction. Our Thun vs Servette prediction is that the draw is a realistic outcome, but if a winner must be picked, Thun gets a narrow nod because of their flawless H2H record. A 1-1 scoreline fits the form patterns.