Bohemians Dublin - Shelbourne prediction 23 October 2026

The Bohemians Dublin vs Shelbourne prediction for this Premier Division match on Oct 23 at 19:45 points to a home advantage at Dalymount Park. Based on the stats, Bohemians Dublin has a 55% chance of winning, while Shelbourne sits at a 22% win probability, with the draw at 23%.

Team Form

Bohemians Dublin's recent form shows two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five outings (W, L, L, W, D). At home, they beat Waterford United 2-1 on Oct 16, lost 0-2 to Waterford United in the FAI Cup, and drew 0-0 with Bohemians Praha 1905 in a friendly. They have scored 60 goals this season while conceding 41.

Shelbourne travels with strong away momentum: three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five (W, W, D, W, L). Their away form is particularly impressive, with only two losses in 17 road matches this season. Highlights include a 2-1 win at St. Patricks Athletic, a 5-1 demolition of Sligo Rovers, and a 3-2 victory at Dundalk.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head, Bohemians Dublin lead with 13 wins to Shelbourne's 7, alongside 9 draws. The last five meetings reveal a tight rivalry: Bohemians Dublin won the most recent clash 3-0 away on Jun 22, after a 2-2 home draw on May 4. The three matches prior all ended level, with a 0-0 stalemate in March 2026 and consecutive 2-2 draws in January 2026 and October 2025, though Shelbourne won that 2025 encounter 3-2.

League Table Positions

Bohemians Dublin sit 2nd in the Premier Division with 62 points from 34 games (18 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses). Shelbourne are 4th with 46 points (11 wins, 13 draws, 10 losses). The 16-point gap between the sides underlines Bohemians Dublin's stronger campaign. At home, Bohemians Dublin have collected 30 points from 17 matches, while Shelbourne boast the 2nd-best away record in the league with 29 points from 17 road trips.

Win Probability: Bohemians Dublin or Shelbourne?

Based on odds, form, head-to-head, and home advantage, the win probabilities are calculated as follows: Bohemians Dublin win — 55%, draw — 23%, Shelbourne win — 22%. The odds imply a home win probability around 58-60% after removing the bookmaker margin, but Shelbourne's excellent away record (only 2 away losses) and Bohemians Dublin's slightly inconsistent recent home form adjust the chances downward slightly. Bohemians Dublin's 2nd-place standing and dominant overall H2H (13 wins to 7) make them the clear favorite, yet Shelbourne's resilience on the road keeps the draw and away win probabilities significant.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Bohemians Dublin as the favorite with best odds of 1.65 for the home win, compared to 4.55 for a Shelbourne victory. The draw is priced around 2.42. Based on the stats, Bohemians Dublin have the edge in league position, goal difference (+19 vs +2), and head-to-head history. However, Shelbourne's strong away form—second only to Bohemians Dublin themselves—suggests this will be a competitive derby. The most likely outcome is a Bohemians Dublin win, but a draw cannot be ruled out given the history of stalemates between these sides.