Shimshon Tel Aviv - Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon prediction 30 September 2026

Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon prediction for the League Alef clash on Sep 30, 2026 at 13:30. Based on form, head-to-head, and bookmaker odds, our win probabilities are: Shimshon Tel Aviv 40%, draw 35%, Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon 25%. The hosts enter as slight favorites, but the match is expected to be competitive.

Team Form

Shimshon Tel Aviv are in excellent recent form, with a last‑five record of W–W–D–W–W (4 wins, 1 draw). In those matches they scored 13 goals, including a 4‑2 home victory against Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon back in February. Their most recent outings: a 2‑1 away win at Hapoel Marmorek (Sep 23), a 3‑1 home win over FC Holon Yermiyahu (Sep 17), a 2‑2 draw at Hapoel Hadera (Sep 9), and a 2‑0 home win against Irony Bet Shemesh (Sep 3). They are unbeaten in five and consistently finding the net.

Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon are also undefeated in their last five (W–W–D–D–D), but have drawn three of those. Their results: a 1‑0 home win over Maccabi Ironi Sderot (Sep 23), a 1‑0 away win at Hapoel Marmorek (Sep 18), a 1‑1 home draw with Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (Sep 9), a 0‑0 away draw at FC Holon Yermiyahu (Sep 4), and a 2‑2 cup draw against FC Jerusalem (Aug 27). While defensively solid, their attack has produced only three goals in the last four league games.

Head-to-Head Record

The two previous meetings both ended in home wins. On Feb 26, 2026, Shimshon Tel Aviv won 4‑2 at this venue. Earlier, on Oct 31, 2025, Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon triumphed 2‑0 on their own ground. No draws have occurred. The head‑to‑head data suggests a tight contest where home advantage may again play a decisive role.

Win Probability: Shimshon Tel Aviv or Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon?

We have calculated the outcome chances using bookmaker odds as a baseline, then adjusted for team form and head‑to‑head trends. The raw bookmaker implied probabilities (average of two sources, margin removed) pointed to roughly 35% for a home win, 36% for a draw, and 29% for an away win. Given Shimshon Tel Aviv’s superior recent attacking numbers (4 wins, 1 draw in last five) and their emphatic home victory in the last H2H, we upgraded their win likelihood to 40%. The draw probability stays at 35%, reflecting the away side’s three draws in the last four league games. Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon’s win chance is set at 25%. Thus, Shimshon Tel Aviv is the more likely winner, but a stalemate is a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers present contrasting views. One offers home/draw/away odds of 2.88 / 2.10 / 3.40, which implies a high draw probability and a low away win chance. Another lists 2.25 / 3.15 / 2.75, tilting slightly towards the hosts. The disparity underlines the competitive nature of this fixture. Based on all available stats, our prediction is a narrow home victory for Shimshon Tel Aviv. However, given the odds movement and Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon’s resilient form, a draw is a credible alternative outcome. Caution is advised for betting tips, and always compare odds across bookmakers.