Pakhtakor Tashkent II - Shurtan Guzar prediction 21 September 2026

This Shurtan Guzar vs Pakhtakor Tashkent II prediction for September 21, 2026, in the Uzbekistan Pro League shows a clear favorite. Based on the latest odds, win probabilities, team form, and league table positions, Shurtan Guzar has a 55% chance of winning, a draw is at 25%, and Pakhtakor Tashkent II holds a 20% chance.

Team Form

Shurtan Guzar comes into this match in strong away form, with four wins and a draw in their last five matches (W, W, L, W, D). They recently thrashed PFC Terdu 3–0 at home, beat Turan Yaypan 4–1 on the road, and edged Kattaqorgon 1–0. The only setback was a 3–1 loss at FarDu Fergana. This run shows consistency and goal-scoring threat.

Pakhtakor Tashkent II's last five results are poor (L, L, W, L, W). They suffered consecutive away defeats to Jayhun Nukus 2–0 and Metallurg Bekabad 1–0, then bounced back with a 3–0 home win over PFC Terdu, followed by a 2–0 loss at Turan Yaypan and a 2–1 home victory over Lochin. At home, their form is slightly better with two wins in the last five, but overall they have struggled all season.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous meeting between these teams was on May 05, 2026. In that Pro League fixture, Shurtan Guzar, playing at home, secured a 2–0 victory over Pakhtakor Tashkent II. The head-to-head record stands at 1 win for Shurtan Guzar, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Pakhtakor Tashkent II.

League Table Positions

The standings underline the massive gap between the sides. Shurtan Guzar sits 3rd with 39 points from 19 matches (12 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, 31 goals scored, 19 conceded). On the road they are 2nd in the away table with 6 wins, 1 draw, and only 2 defeats. Pakhtakor Tashkent II is rock-bottom in 12th place with just 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 15 losses, 13 goals for, 42 against). The gap of 29 points and the contrasting goal differences strongly point to an away win.

Win Probability: Shurtan Guzar or Pakhtakor Tashkent II?

Bookmaker odds were used as a base, then adjusted for recent form, the head-to-head result, and the massive league table discrepancy. The odds implied an away win probability of about 46.5%, a draw around 36%, and a home win around 17%. After weighting in Shurtan Guzar’s excellent away record and Pakhtakor Tashkent II’s poor overall season, those numbers shift further in favour of the visitors. The final calculated probabilities are Shurtan Guzar win 55%, draw 25%, Pakhtakor Tashkent II win 20%. Shurtan Guzar is the clear favourite to claim all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Selected pre-match odds from the bookmakers: Shurtan Guzar to win is priced at 1.95, the draw at 2.50, and a Pakhtakor Tashkent II victory at 5.25. These odds reflect the visitors' status as the expected winners. Based on the stats, our prediction is a win for Shurtan Guzar, most likely with a clean sheet – a repeat of the 2–0 head-to-head scoreline is a reasonable forecast.