Siauliai Futbolo Akademija - FK Hegelmann Litauen prediction 13 September 2026

The Siauliai Futbolo Akademija vs FK Hegelmann Litauen prediction for September 13, 2026, points to a closely contested A Lyga match in Lithuania. Kick-off is at 14:00, and based on the latest odds and head-to-head record, FK Hegelmann Litauen enters as a slight favorite with a 38% win probability, while the home side holds a 35% chance. The draw is a very realistic outcome at 27%.

Team Form

Siauliai Futbolo Akademija's recent form is poor, with four losses in their last five matches. Their last five results read L, L, L, L, W. The sole victory was a 1-0 home win against Baltija Panevezys on August 17. Since then, they have suffered defeats against Transinvest (3-0), Suduva Marijampole (1-2), FK Kauno Zalgiris (0-1 in the Cup), and Zalgiris Vilnius (1-0).

FK Hegelmann Litauen is also struggling for consistency, with a form guide of L, D, D, L, L. They have not won in their last five outings. Their most recent match was a 1-3 home loss to Baltija Panevezys on September 7. Before that, they drew 2-2 with Dziugas Telsiai and 1-1 with Banga Gargzdai, and lost to FK Kauno Zalgiris (2-0) and Transinvest (1-2).

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors FK Hegelmann Litauen. In 21 previous meetings, the away side has won 13 times, while Siauliai Futbolo Akademija has only 2 wins, with 6 draws. The last five encounters show a clear pattern:

• Jul 24, 2026: Siauliai Futbolo Akademija 0-2 FK Hegelmann Litauen
• May 09, 2026: Siauliai Futbolo Akademija 1-1 FK Hegelmann Litauen
• Mar 11, 2026: FK Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 Siauliai Futbolo Akademija
• Sep 14, 2025: Siauliai Futbolo Akademija 0-1 FK Hegelmann Litauen
• Aug 07, 2025: FK Hegelmann Litauen 3-1 Siauliai Futbolo Akademija (Cup)

FK Hegelmann Litauen has won three of the last five, with the other two ending in draws. Siauliai has failed to beat their opponents in these recent clashes.

League Table Positions

Both teams are in the bottom half of the A Lyga table. FK Hegelmann Litauen sits 8th with 24 points from 27 matches (4 wins, 12 draws, 11 losses). Siauliai Futbolo Akademija is 9th with just 16 points from 27 games (3 wins, 7 draws, 17 losses). The 8-point gap reflects a slightly more resilient away side, who have managed 12 draws compared to the home team's 7. Siauliai's goal difference is -32, having conceded 56 goals, while Hegelmann's is -17 from 47 conceded.

Win Probability: Siauliai Futbolo Akademija or FK Hegelmann Litauen?

After a detailed analysis, the win probabilities for this match are: Siauliai Futbolo Akademija 35%, Draw 27%, FK Hegelmann Litauen 38%. This calculation starts with the bookmaker odds (home 2.45, draw 3.35, away 2.40). The inverse of these odds gives an initial implied probability, which is then normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. The adjustment factors in FK Hegelmann Litauen's dominant head-to-head record (13 wins in 21 games) and their slightly higher league position, which offsets Siauliai's home advantage. Both teams' recent form is poor, which increases the likelihood of a draw. The conclusion is that FK Hegelmann Litauen has a marginally higher chance of winning, but this is a very open match where any outcome is possible.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match 1X2 odds from bookmakers are: Home win at 2.45, Draw at 3.35, and Away win at 2.40. These odds confirm the tight nature of the contest, with FK Hegelmann Litauen as the narrow favorite. Based on the stats, head-to-head dominance, and league positions, the prediction leans towards an away win or a draw. The most probable outcome is FK Hegelmann Litauen to win, but the value may lie in the draw given both sides' recent struggles to secure victories.