Umraniyespor - Sivasspor prediction 24 October 2026

The Umraniyespor vs Sivasspor prediction for this 1st League fixture on October 24, 2026, sees the hosts as slight favorites with a 42% chance of winning. The match kicks off at 11:30, and based on recent form and head-to-head data, this is a tightly contested matchup where any outcome is possible.

Team Form

Umraniyespor come into this match with a mixed bag of results in their last five outings, recording two wins, one draw, and two losses (W, L, D, W, L). Their most recent match was a morale-boosting 2-0 away win against Vanspor FK on October 18. However, the loss at home to Boluspor on October 14 highlights their inconsistency.

Sivasspor's recent form shows a remarkable run of draws: they have tied four of their last five matches (D, D, W, D, D). Their sole win in that period was a convincing 4-1 victory over Pendikspor on October 9. Their last two away matches both ended 1-1, against Bandirmaspor and Ankara Keciorengucu, proving they are tough to beat on the road but lack the cutting edge to secure all three points.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between Umraniyespor and Sivasspor is perfectly balanced across their last six meetings. Each team has won twice, with two games ending in a draw. Home advantage has proven crucial in recent league encounters. Umraniyespor won 1-0 when they last hosted Sivasspor in the league on November 1, 2025. Sivasspor returned the favor with a 1-0 home win on March 15, 2026. The overall balanced H2H record supports the highly competitive nature of this fixture.

League Table Positions

In the 1st League standings, there is very little to separate these two sides based on points. Sivasspor sits in 11th place with 13 points, having played 11 matches (2 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses). Umraniyespor is not featured in the provided overall top 12, which places them below 12th position. Looking at home and away splits, Umraniyespor is absent from the home table top 8, suggesting a poor record at their own ground. Sivasspor is also absent from the away table top 8, meaning their travel form, despite being hard to beat, is not among the league's elite.

Win Probability: Umraniyespor or Sivasspor?

After a thorough analysis of all available data, the calculated win probabilities for this match are: Umraniyespor has a 42% chance of winning, the draw stands at 31%, and Sivasspor has a 27% chance. This calculation is based primarily on the bookmaker odds, which were normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted for the teams' form and the balanced head-to-head record. The odds imply a tight match, and the heavy draw bias in Sivasspor's recent results significantly increases the probability of a stalemate. While Umraniyespor's home advantage and solid away win at Vanspor give them a slight edge, Sivasspor is more likely to grind out a draw than secure a victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this match as extremely open. The available odds show a home win for Umraniyespor priced around 2.20, a draw also at 2.20, and an away win for Sivasspor at 3.30. Other bookmakers quote 2.14 for a home win, 2.12 for the draw, and 3.35 for the away win. Based on the stats, the value might lie in the draw, given Sivasspor's incredible sequence of stalemates, though Umraniyespor's home advantage makes a low-scoring home win the most probable single outcome. We predict a very cagey affair.