Slavia Sofia - Spartak Varna prediction 13 September 2026

Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna prediction for the 1st League match on Sep 13, 2026. Based on the latest stats, form, and odds, Slavia Sofia has a 48% chance of winning, a draw is priced at 27%, and Spartak Varna has a 25% chance of taking all three points.

Team Form

Slavia Sofia come into this match with a mixed run of results: one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches (L, D, D, D, W). The most recent outing was a narrow 1-2 home defeat to Levski Sofia on Sep 02. Before that, they held Septemvri Sofia to a 1-1 draw, drew 1-1 away at Ludogorets Razgrad, and shared points with Levski Sofia in a goalless stalemate. The sole victory was a convincing 3-0 away win at Botev Vratsa on Aug 10.

Spartak Varna are struggling for form. Their last five results read two draws followed by three consecutive defeats (D, D, L, L, L). They drew 1-1 at home against CSKA Sofia on Sep 05 and 1-1 at home against Ludogorets Razgrad on Aug 30. Heavy losses followed: 0-6 against Levski Sofia, 0-1 against Septemvri Sofia, and a 2-3 defeat away at Botev Plovdiv. Spartak have failed to win any of their last five and have conceded 11 goals in their last three games.

Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head history, Slavia Sofia have won 4 of the 8 meetings, with 2 draws and 2 Spartak Varna wins. The last five encounters show a slight edge for Slavia: two wins, two draws, and one Spartak victory. The most recent match on May 10, 2026, ended 2-1 to Spartak Varna at home. Before that, Slavia triumphed 4-0 at home on Mar 06, 2026. The overall H2H record includes a 1-3 away win for Slavia in December 2024 and a 2-2 draw in October 2022.

League Table Positions

In the 1st League standings, Spartak Varna sit 7th with 9 points from 8 matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses; goals 10-14). Slavia Sofia are 9th with 7 points from 7 games (1 win, 4 draws, 2 losses; goals 7-6). Slavia have a game in hand and a better defensive record, conceding only 6 goals compared to Spartak’s 14. At home, Spartak have collected 6 points from 5 matches (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). Slavia’s away form is solid: ranked 7th in the away table with 4 points from 3 trips (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss).

Win Probability: Slavia Sofia or Spartak Varna?

We calculate the win probabilities using the bookmaker odds as a base, then adjust for form, H2H, and home advantage. The inverse odds (1/2.05, 1/3.10, 1/3.40) sum to 1.1045; after normalising to remove the margin, the raw probabilities are: Slavia Sofia 44.2%, Draw 29.2%, Spartak Varna 26.6%. Based on Slavia’s superior H2H record, home advantage, and Spartak’s very poor current form, we adjust the probabilities to: Slavia Sofia win: 48%, Draw: 27%, Spartak Varna win: 25%. Slavia are clearly the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Slavia Sofia as the favourite with odds of 2.05 for a home win. The draw is priced at 3.10, and an away win for Spartak Varna at 3.40. Given the stats, a home win is the most probable outcome. Slavia’s defence has been resilient, and Spartak’s attack has struggled to score consistently. Our prediction: Slavia Sofia to win.