Sol de America Villa Elisa - Deportivo Carapegua prediction 9 October 2026

The Sol de America Villa Elisa vs Deportivo Carapegua prediction for this Segunda Division clash on October 9, 2026 (23:30 kick-off) points to a home victory as the most likely outcome. Based on our analysis, Sol de America Villa Elisa has a 45% chance of winning, while a draw holds a 35% probability, and Deportivo Carapegua has a 20% chance.

Team Form

Sol de America Villa Elisa come into this match with a mixed recent record. In their last five outings, they recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses (D, W, L, W, L). Their most recent result was a 1-1 away draw against 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes, preceded by a promising 2-0 home win over Encarnacion FC. However, a heavy 0-3 defeat at Deportivo Santani and a 0-1 loss at 3 de Noviembre show some inconsistency, though a 3-2 home win against Fernando de la Mora highlights their attacking potential at home.

Deportivo Carapegua, by contrast, are unbeaten in their last five matches (D, W, D, W, W). They played out a 1-1 home draw with Deportivo Capiata, secured a 1-0 away victory at Independiente FBC Campo Grande, and drew 0-0 at home with Tacuary Asuncion. Road wins at Atletico Tembetary (2-1) and a 2-0 home success over Club Doctor Benjamin Aceval round out an impressive run. This away form will give them confidence, but Sol’s home resilience is a significant hurdle.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favours Sol de America Villa Elisa, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their five previous meetings. The most recent encounter, on July 5, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw. Before that, Sol thrashed Carapegua 5-1 away in July 2025, and won 2-1 at home in April 2025. The only Carapegua victory in this sequence came back in July 2023 (1-0). Overall, Sol has dominated the tie, and playing at home further strengthens their historical edge.

League Table Positions

In the Segunda Division overall standings, Sol de America Villa Elisa sit 5th with 41 points from 27 matches (9 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses), while Deportivo Carapegua are 7th with 39 points (11W, 6D, 10L). The home side’s campaign has been defined by draws – 14 in total – and they remain unbeaten at home this season: 13 matches, 4 wins, 9 draws, 0 losses, scoring 14 and conceding just 8. Carapegua’s away record is 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, with 15 goals for and 22 against. Sol’s fortress-like home form and defensive solidity make them extremely difficult to beat.

Win Probability: Sol de America Villa Elisa or Deportivo Carapegua?

We calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows:

• Sol de America Villa Elisa win: 45%
• Draw: 35%
• Deportivo Carapegua win: 20%

These estimates are grounded in the available bookmaker odds (average ~2.00 home, ~2.36 draw, ~3.84 away). The raw inverse odds implied probabilities around 42% / 36% / 22% after removing the margin, but we adjust upwards for the host due to their unbeaten home campaign (13 games, 0 losses) and the head-to-head advantage. Meanwhile, Carapegua’s away goal concession rate and Sol’s ability to grind out draws at home keep the draw and away win probabilities in check. Consequently, the home side is the clear favourite, but a draw remains a serious possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers broadly price Sol de America Villa Elisa as favourites, with average odds floating around 2.00 for a home win, 2.36 for the draw, and 3.84 for an away success. Based on the stats, Sol’s sheer difficulty to beat at Villa Elisa, combined with Carapegua’s improved but still vulnerable away defence, the most rational prediction is a narrow home win or, at least, a stalemate. The Sol de America Villa Elisa vs Deportivo Carapegua prediction leans towards the home side, but with a high draw probability, a low-scoring affair (under 2.5 goals) also warrants consideraton for betting tips.