Song Lam Nghe An - Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC prediction 11 October 2026

The Song Lam Nghe An vs Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC prediction for October 11, 2026, sees the home side enter this V-League clash as the favorite with a 42% win probability. The match kicks off at 12:00, and based on recent form and head-to-head stats, Song Lam Nghe An has a clear edge playing at home.

Team Form

Song Lam Nghe An comes into this match in strong form, having won their last three games across all competitions. Their recent results show a 2-0 away win at Lam Dong in the Cup, a 4-1 away victory against Ha Noi T&T, and a 1-0 home win over TDTT Bac Ninh. The two losses prior to this run were a 3-1 home defeat to PVF Cong An Nhan Dan FC and a 3-0 away loss at Nam Dinh. Overall, the home side has momentum with three consecutive wins.

Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC's recent form is more inconsistent, with a draw, a loss, a draw, a win, and a loss in their last five matches. They drew 1-1 away at Ratchaburi in the ASEAN Club Championship, lost 1-0 at home to Dai Hoc Van Hien, and drew 1-1 away at Binh Dinh in the Cup. A 1-0 away win at Lam Dong was followed by a 1-0 loss at TDTT Bac Ninh. The away side has struggled for consistency, with just one win in their last five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record heavily favors Song Lam Nghe An, who have 14 wins compared to Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC's 6, with 5 draws. However, recent meetings tell a different story. In the last five encounters, Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC have won three, with two draws. The most recent match on May 10, 2026, saw Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC win 3-1 at home. Before that, on September 27, 2025, the away side won 3-2 at Song Lam Nghe An's ground. The last two matches at this venue ended in a 3-2 away win and a 0-0 draw.

League Table Positions

In the V-League standings, Song Lam Nghe An sit 3rd with 6 points from 2 matches, having scored 5 goals and conceded just 1. Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC are 7th with 3 points from 2 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 2. At home, Song Lam Nghe An are 3rd with a perfect record of 1 win from 1 game, scoring 1 and conceding 0. Away from home, Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC have no recorded away league matches in the standings data, but their overall away form in the league is not detailed in the table. The 3-point gap and superior goal difference highlight the home side's stronger start to the season.

Win Probability: Song Lam Nghe An or Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC?

Based on the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Song Lam Nghe An has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC has a 30% chance. The odds imply a tight contest, but the home side's three-match winning streak and higher league position give them the edge. The away side's recent dominance in the H2H (three wins in the last five) prevents the home probability from being higher. The draw probability is significant, reflecting the two draws in the last five meetings.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the 1X2 market show variation. The best available home win odds are around 2.41, the draw is as low as 2.08, and the away win is priced up to 3.30. The odds suggest a close match, with the draw being a strong possibility according to some bookmakers. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards a home win for Song Lam Nghe An, but the value may lie in the draw given the recent H2H results and the away side's ability to get results at this ground. A 1-0 or 2-1 home victory is a likely outcome, but a draw cannot be ruled out.