Spalding United - Bury Town prediction 6 October 2026
Spalding United
Bury Town
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Spalding United vs Bury Town prediction for the FA Cup match on October 6, 2026, at 19:45. Our analysis gives Spalding United a 52% chance to win, with a draw at 28% and Bury Town at 20%. The bookmakers also see the home side as clear favorites.
Team Form
Spalding United
Spalding United's last five results: D, L, W, W, W. They drew 1-1 away to Bury Town in the FA Cup on Oct 3, lost 2-1 away to Chorley in the National League North, then won three in a row: 2-1 home vs Bedford Town, 3-1 away vs Spennymoor Town, and 2-0 home vs Southport. They have scored 8 goals in these five matches and kept two clean sheets at home.
Bury Town
Bury Town's last five results: D, W, W, W, L. They drew 1-1 at home to Spalding United, then won 2-1 away at Bishops Stortford, 1-0 home vs Hitchin Town, 4-3 away at Gorleston in the FA Cup, and lost 1-0 away to Bromsgrove Sporting. They have also scored 8 goals in this period, showing consistent attacking output.
Head-to-Head Record
In the last three meetings, Spalding United have won twice and drawn once. The most recent was a 1-1 draw in the FA Cup on Oct 3, 2026. Before that, Spalding won 2-1 at home in November 2025 and 2-1 away in September 2025, both in the Southern League Premier Division. Spalding are unbeaten in this fixture with a 2-1-0 record.
Win Probability: Spalding United or Bury Town?
Based on average bookmaker odds of 1.69 for a home win, the raw implied probability is around 49%. Adjusting for Spalding United's strong head-to-head record (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses) and home advantage, we raise their win probability to 52%. The draw, implied at 30% from average odds of 2.75, is adjusted down to 28% given only one draw in three H2H meetings. Bury Town's away win chance remains at 20% (implied 21% from odds of 4.09). Spalding United are the more likely winners, but a draw cannot be ruled out.
Odds & Match Prediction
The best available odds for a Spalding United win range from 1.67 to 1.75. The draw is priced between 2.30 and 4.00, and an away win between 3.75 and 4.40. These odds reflect the home side's favoritism. Our prediction: based on the stats, Spalding United are expected to win, but the recent 1-1 draw suggests a tight contest is possible.
Spalding United vs Bury Town โ FAQ
- Who will win Spalding United vs Bury Town?
- Spalding United have a 52% chance of winning, compared to 28% for a draw and 20% for Bury Town. Based on form and head-to-head record, Spalding United are the most likely winners.
- What is the win probability for Spalding United?
- Spalding United have a 52% win probability. This is based on average bookmaker odds of 1.69, adjusted for their unbeaten head-to-head record (2 wins, 1 draw) and home advantage.
- When is the Spalding United vs Bury Town match?
- The match is on October 6, 2026, at 19:45 local time. It is an FA Cup fixture in England.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The average odds are 1.69 for a Spalding United win, 2.75 for a draw, and 4.09 for a Bury Town win. Different bookmakers offer varying odds, with home wins as low as 1.67 and draws up to 4.00.