FK Graficar Beograd - Spartak Subotica prediction 24 October 2026

If you're looking for a reliable FK Graficar Beograd vs Spartak Subotica prediction, you've come to the right place. The Prva Liga match kicks off on October 24, 2026 at 13:00 local time in Serbia. Our data shows FK Graficar Beograd with a 38% win probability, making them the slight favourites over Spartak Subotica (32%) – with the draw at 30% – thanks to a combination of home advantage, somewhat better recent form, and a positive H2H memory.

Team Form

FK Graficar Beograd enter this fixture with mixed results. Over their last five matches, they've posted one win, one draw, and three defeats: a 3-1 away loss to FK Jedinstvo UB, a 1-1 home draw with Javor Ivanjica, a 4-1 away defeat at TSC Backa Topola, a commanding 4-1 home win against Teleoptik, and a narrow 1-0 away loss to Metalac Gornji Milanovac. That single win did come at home, however, showing they can perform in front of their own fans.

Spartak Subotica, by contrast, are in a deep slump. Their last five outings have all been losses: a 2-1 away defeat at Dubocica, a humiliating 0-6 home loss to Proleter Zrenjanin 023, a 2-0 away reverse at Loznica, a 0-2 home defeat to Vozdovac, and a 2-1 away loss at Smederevo 1924. They've conceded 14 goals across those five games and are yet to register a point in this sequence.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met only once in recent memory, a Cup tie on November 1, 2023. FK Graficar Beograd used home advantage to claim a 2-0 victory. Spartak Subotica have never beaten Graficar in a competitive fixture, though a single match is a very small sample size.

League Table Positions

In the Prva Liga standings, Spartak Subotica sit 12th with 15 ponts from 13 matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses). FK Graficar Beograd are not present in the provided top-12 table, which suggests they are lower in the overall classification. However, league position doesn't always translate directly to match outcomes, especially when recent form and home/away factors are considered.

Win Probability: FK Graficar Beograd or Spartak Subotica?

We started with the bookmaker odds, removing the overround to get fair implied probabilities. Then we adjusted for the actual performances we have in the data. The result:

• FK Graficar Beograd win: 38%
• Draw: 30%
• Spartak Subotica win: 32%

The logic is straightforward: while the raw odds pointed to an away favourite (Spartak at 2.25), the weight of recent form is simply too negative on Spartak. Five consecutive defeats, several with large margins, raise serious doubts. Meanwhile, Graficar have been more competitive and showed against Teleoptik that they can win at home. The head-to-head win also adds a tiny psychological edge. With these adjustments, the home side just about edges it in our model. The draw probability is also elevated because both sides have shown defensive fragility but may cancel each other out.

Odds & Match Prediction

At the time of analysis, the best available odds for a FK Graficar Beograd win are 2.65, the draw is priced at 3.30, and an Spartak Subotica away win at 2.25. Bookmakers make Spartak the nominal favourites, yet our data tells a story of two struggling teams where home advantage and slightly less catastrophic form could be decisive. Our final FK Graficar Beograd vs Spartak Subotica prediction is to back the home side in the double chance market or a low-scoring contest where Graficar might just scrape a win. All numbers and facts are from the available match data.