Spezia - Vis Pesaro prediction 21 September 2026
Spezia
Vis PesaroSpezia
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SpeziaVis Pesaro| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cittadella | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 18:6 | +12 | 27 |
| 2 |  Trento Calcio 1921 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 17:6 | +11 | 23 |
| 3 |  Union Brescia | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19:9 | +10 | 22 |
| 4 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16:11 | +5 | 20 |
| 5 |  Treviso | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | +4 | 19 |
| 6 |  ACD Ospitaletto | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18:11 | +7 | 18 |
| 7 |  US Pergolettese | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10:9 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 18:17 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Lecco | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 |  Albinoleffe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16:15 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Desenzano Calvina | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Lumezzane | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12:16 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 |  Carpi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16:21 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 |  Pro Vercelli | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:19 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 |  Giana Erminio | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 |  Novara | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10:16 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8:14 | -6 | 10 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 10 |
| 19 |  Folgore Caratese | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11:17 | -6 | 7 |
| 20 |  Renate | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9:16 | -7 | 5 |
Spezia vs Vis Pesaro Prediction (Sep 21)
Our Spezia vs Vis Pesaro prediction for the Serie C match on September 21, 2026 at 18:30 UTC points firmly towards a home victory. Spezia enters the contest at the Stadio Alberto Picco as the overwhelming favorite, with an 80% chance of winning according to our detailed analysis.
Team Form
Spezia have been in sensational form, winning all five of their last home matches. Across all competitions in their most recent five outings they have secured five straight wins, scoring 11 goals and conceding just a single goal. Highlights include a 3โ0 away demolition of Perugia, a 2โ0 home victory over Livorno, and a 3โ0 cup win against Vado. The teamโs defense has been nearโimpenetrable at home, keeping three consecutive home clean sheets.
Vis Pesaro, in stark contrast, are struggling badly. Their away form is dire: four defeats and one draw in the last five away fixtures. In their most recent matches overall, they have lost four and drawn one โ including a 4โ1 home loss to Reggiana, a 2โ1 away defeat at Forli, and a humiliating 5โ0 cup thrashing at Gubbio. Goals have been scarce (2 scored in those five away games) while the defence has leaked 13, making them significant underdogs here.
Head-to-Head Record
There are no past meetings recorded between Spezia and Vis Pesaro, so this will be the first documented head-to-head clash between the two sides. As a result, recent headโtoโhead form offers no additional insight for this prediction.
League Table Positions
The provided Serie C standings do not feature Spezia or Vis Pesaro among the top 12 listed teams. While a direct position comparison is impossible, Speziaโs perfect home record suggests they are likely near the summit of their group, whereas Vis Pesaroโs poor away results point to a lowerโtable position in theirs.
Win Probability: Spezia vs Vis Pesaro Prediction
Using the preโmatch betting odds as a base and adjusting for team form, home advantage, and Vis Pesaroโs away struggles, we calculate the following win probabilities: Spezia win โ 80%, Draw โ 15%, Vis Pesaro win โ 5%. The implied probability from the shortest home odds (1.20) is around 83%, but after normalizing for the bookmaker margin and factoring in the visitorsโ extremely poor away record, the chance of an away win reduces to just 5%. Speziaโs perfect home streak (5 wins from 5) at the Alberto Picco makes a home victory the overwhelmingly most likely outcome.
Odds & Spezia vs Vis Pesaro Prediction
Bookmakers have priced Spezia as massive favorites. The best available odds for a home win range from 1.20 to 1.26, while a draw is quoted between 2.50 and 6.56, and a Vis Pesaro away win reaches up to 15.29 โ underlining how oneโsided the market sees this fixture. Our match prediction based on all available statistics is a comfortable home win for Spezia, likely with a clean sheet given their defensive solidity. A correctโscore bet of 2โ0 or 3โ0 could offer good value for those considering betting tips around this match.
Spezia vs Vis Pesaro โ FAQ
- Who will win Spezia vs Vis Pesaro?
- Spezia has an 80% probability to win, according to our win probability calculation. The draw stands at 15%, while Vis Pesaro has only a 5% chance. These figures are driven by Speziaโs perfect home form and Vis Pesaroโs string of away defeats.
- What is the win probability for Spezia?
- Spezia has an 80% chance of winning this match. The probability is backed by their fiveโmatch home winning streak and the extremely short betting odds (1.20โ1.26) that imply a nearโcertain home victory.
- When is the Spezia vs Vis Pesaro match?
- The Spezia vs Vis Pesaro match takes place on September 21, 2026, at 18:30 UTC at the Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia, Italy. It is a Serie C fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Bookmakers offer home win odds as low as 1.20 for Spezia, a draw priced between 2.50 and 6.56, and an away win for Vis Pesaro ranging from 7.90 to 15.29. These odds firmly identify Spezia as the heavy favorite.
- What is Spezia's recent form like?
- Spezia are on a fiveโmatch winning streak across all competitions (Serie C and Coppa Serie C), netting 11 goals and conceding just 1. At home, they have won all five recent fixtures with three consecutive clean sheets.