Sport Recife PE - Sao Bernardo SP prediction 6 October 2026

Sport Recife PE vs Sao Bernardo SP prediction for the Serie B match on Oct 6, 2026, at 23:30. Based on the latest stats and odds, Sport Recife PE are the favorites with a 48% win probability, while Sao Bernardo SP have a 20% chance of an away victory.

Team Form

Sport Recife PE's last five results:

• Oct 2: Athletic Club MG 1-2 Sport Recife PE (W)
• Sep 26: Nautico PE 3-1 Sport Recife PE (L)
• Sep 19: Sport Recife PE 2-1 Juventude RS (W)
• Sep 16: CRB AL 2-1 Sport Recife PE (L)
• Sep 11: Sport Recife PE 2-0 Ponte Preta SP (W)

At home, they have been solid, with only one defeat in 15 league games this season. They have scored in all of their last five home fixtures.

Sao Bernardo SP's last five:

• Sep 25: Gremio Novorizontino SP 0-0 Sao Bernardo SP (D)
• Sep 19: Sao Bernardo SP 1-0 Atletico Goianiense GO (W)
• Sep 14: America Mineiro MG 0-2 Sao Bernardo SP (W)
• Sep 11: Sao Bernardo SP 1-2 Londrina PR (L)
• Sep 6: Ponte Preta SP 0-2 Sao Bernardo SP (W)

Notably, they are the best away team in Serie B, with 8 wins from 15 road trips, and have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once in recent history. On Jun 14, 2026, Sao Bernardo SP hosted Sport Recife PE and the match ended in a 0-0 draw. So the head-to-head record stands at 0 wins for Sport Recife, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Sao Bernardo.

League Table Positions

In the Serie B standings, Sport Recife PE sit 9th with 47 points from 31 matches (12W, 11D, 8L). Sao Bernardo SP are 12th with 42 points from 30 games (11W, 9D, 10L). The five-point gap is small, and Sao Bernardo have a game in hand. At home, Sport Recife rank 7th with 7 wins, 7 draws, and just 1 loss, scoring 26 goals. Sao Bernardo, however, top the away table with 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, netting 24 goals on the road.

Win Probability: Sport Recife PE or Sao Bernardo SP?

Based on the odds, team form, and home/away records, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Sport Recife PE have a 48% chance of winning, a draw is at 32%, and Sao Bernardo SP have a 20% chance. The average bookmaker odds of 1.87 for a home win imply a 53.5% chance, but after removing the overround, the true probability is about 44%. We adjust this upward because of Sport Recife's outstanding home record (only one loss in 15 games) and Sao Bernardo's strong away form, which also lifts the draw probability. The home side's consistency at their stadium gives them the edge, but the visitors' top away ranking keeps the draw and away win probabilities realistic.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' average odds for this match: home win at 1.87, draw at 2.42, away win at 3.85. The odds clearly favor Sport Recife PE. Considering the stats, our Sport Recife PE vs Sao Bernardo SP prediction is a home victory. However, Sao Bernardo SP's away prowess means a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out. Betting tips: the home win offers value given Sport Recife's home form, but the draw is also a plausible outcome.