Mafra - Sporting Covilha prediction 5 September 2026
Mafra
Sporting Covilha
CaldasMafraMafraSanta ClaraMafraCF Os BelenensesMafraTirsenseUD OliveirenseMafraMafraSporting CovilhaAtletico MalveiraMafraLusitano Ginasio Clube EvoraMafraAtletico Clube de PortugalMafraMafraVitoria de SernacheMafraSintrenseMafraAlvercaFC FredericiaMafraEsbjergMafraCF Os BelenensesMafraCF Os BelenensesSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseLusitano Ginasio Clube EvoraSporting CovilhaMafraSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaMortagua FCSporting CovilhaAtletico Clube de PortugalVitoria de SernacheSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaUD SantaremSporting CovilhaAmoraCaldasSporting CovilhaLusitano Ginasio Clube EvoraSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaAtletico Clube de Portugal1 DezembroSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaLusitano Ginasio Clube EvoraSporting Covilha1 DezembroMafraSporting CovilhaMafraSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaMafraSporting CovilhaMafraMafraSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaMafraSporting CovilhaMafraMafraSporting CovilhaMafraSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaMafraMafraSporting CovilhaMafraSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaMafraSporting CovilhaMafraMafraSporting CovilhaMafraSporting Covilha| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CF Os Belenenses | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:5 | +11 | 17 |
| 2 |  Paredes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:7 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 |  Atletico Clube de Portugal | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:6 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 |  AD Marco 09 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6:5 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 |  Fafe | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10:6 | +4 | 10 |
| 6 |  UD Oliveirense | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:9 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 |  UD Santarem | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 |  Leca | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:9 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Mafra | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14:10 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sao Joao Ver | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  Vianense | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:11 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Varzim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11:11 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 |  Louletano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 |  Caldas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 |  Pacos Ferreira | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 |  Vitoria Guimaraes B | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 | Sporting Covilha | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 |  Lusitano Ginasio Clube Evora | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Trofense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4:13 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Vitoria de Sernache | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 |
Sporting Covilha vs Mafra Prediction (Dec 13)
Sporting Covilha vs Mafra prediction for the Tercera Liga match on December 13, 2025, at 16:00. Mafra enters as the favorite with a 40% win probability, while Sporting Covilha has a 25% chance and the draw stands at 35%. This forecast is based on recent form, head-to-head record, and league standings.
Team Form
Sporting Covilha's last five matches show mixed results: two wins, two draws, and one loss (W, W, D, D, L). They scored in three of those games but kept only one clean sheet. At home, their recent form includes a 2-1 win over Atletico Clube de Portugal and a 1-1 draw with Amora, indicating they can be competitive but are inconsistent.
Mafra's last five away matches (or overall recent form) produced three wins, one draw, and one loss (W, W, D, L, W). They netted multiple goals in three of those fixtures and showed defensive solidity with two clean sheets. Their away record this season stands at 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses in the league, making them a tough opponent on the road.
Head-to-Head Record
In 15 previous meetings, Sporting Covilha won 4, Mafra won 3, and 8 ended in draws. The most recent clash on September 14, 2025, finished 0-0 at Sporting Covilha's ground. Draws have been the most common outcome historically, which aligns with the 35% probability assigned to a stalemate here.
League Table Positions
Mafra sits 2nd in the Tercera Liga overall standings with 34 points from 18 matches (9 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses). Sporting Covilha is outside the top 12, indicating a lower position. Mafra's away record ranks 5th in the league, while Sporting Covilha's home form is not among the top eight. The gap in points and league standing supports Mafra as the favorite.
Win Probability: Sporting Covilha or Mafra?
After analyzing all available data, the win probabilities are: Sporting Covilha 25%, Draw 35%, Mafra 40%. Mafra's higher league position, stronger away form, and the historical tendency for draws in this fixture shape these numbers. While Sporting Covilha has home advantage, their inconsistent results and lower table status reduce their chances. The draw remains a significant possibility given 8 of 15 H2H matches ended level.
Odds & Match Prediction
No specific odds are available in the data, but bookmakers would likely price Mafra as the favorite. Based on the stats, the most probable outcome is a Mafra win or a draw. Our prediction: Mafra has the edge, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out. For betting tips, the double chance X2 (draw or Mafra win) offers value given the probabilities.
Sporting Covilha vs Mafra โ FAQ
- Who will win Sporting Covilha vs Mafra?
- Mafra is the most likely winner with a 40% probability. Sporting Covilha has a 25% chance, and the draw is at 35%. These percentages are based on league standings, recent form, and head-to-head history.
- What is the win probability for Mafra?
- Mafra has a 40% chance to win. This is derived from their 2nd-place league position, solid away record (3 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses), and the fact that Sporting Covilha is lower in the table with inconsistent home form.
- When is the Sporting Covilha vs Mafra match?
- The match is on December 13, 2025, at 16:00 UTC. It is a Tercera Liga fixture in Portugal.
- What are the odds for the match?
- No specific odds are provided in the data. However, based on the win probabilities, Mafra would be the favorite, with the draw also likely. Check your bookmaker for the latest 1X2 odds.