Sporting Covilha - UD Oliveirense prediction 10 October 2026
Sporting Covilha
UD Oliveirense
CF Os BelenensesSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseLusitano Ginasio Clube EvoraSporting CovilhaMafraSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaMortagua FCSporting CovilhaAtletico Clube de PortugalVitoria de SernacheSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaUD SantaremSporting CovilhaAmoraCaldasSporting CovilhaLusitano Ginasio Clube EvoraSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaAtletico Clube de Portugal1 DezembroSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaLusitano Ginasio Clube EvoraSporting Covilha1 DezembroLusitano Ginasio Clube EvoraUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseUD OliveirensePenafielUD OliveirenseMafraAtletico Clube de PortugalUD OliveirenseUD OliveirensePenalva Do CasteloUD OliveirenseVitoria de SernacheUD SantaremUD OliveirenseUD OliveirenseLouletanoUD OliveirenseFelgueirasCB FeirenseUD OliveirenseUD OliveirenseLusitania LourosaChavesUD OliveirenseUD OliveirenseBenfica BLeixoesUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaUD OliveirenseSporting CovilhaUD Oliveirense| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CF Os Belenenses | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:5 | +11 | 17 |
| 2 |  Paredes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:7 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 |  Atletico Clube de Portugal | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:6 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 |  AD Marco 09 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6:5 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 |  Fafe | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10:6 | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | UD Oliveirense | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:9 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 |  UD Santarem | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 |  Leca | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:9 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  Mafra | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14:10 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sao Joao Ver | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  Vianense | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:11 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Varzim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11:11 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 |  Louletano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 |  Caldas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 |  Pacos Ferreira | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 |  Vitoria Guimaraes B | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 | Sporting Covilha | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 |  Lusitano Ginasio Clube Evora | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Trofense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4:13 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Vitoria de Sernache | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 |
Sporting Covilha vs UD Oliveirense Prediction (Oct 10)
The Sporting Covilha vs UD Oliveirense prediction for October 10, 2026 sees UD Oliveirense as the slight favourite to win with a 35% probability, while a draw is the single most likely outcome at 40%. Sporting Covilha, playing at home in this Tercera Liga clash at 17:30, has only a 25% chance of taking all three points.
Team Form
Sporting Covilha are struggling for form, with no wins in their last five outings (D,L,D,L,D). Their recent home matches have been particularly disappointing: a 0-0 draw with Mortagua FC in the Cup and a heavy 0-3 league defeat against Atletico Clube de Portugal. The attack has failed to score in front of their own fans.
UD Oliveirense enter in much better shape, recording three victories in the last five (L,W,L,W,W). Away from home they won 4-0 at Penalva Do Castelo in the Cup and secured a thrilling 3-2 victory at Vitoria de Sernache, though they did lose 3-1 at Atletico CP. With seven goals in those five games, they carry a genuine goal threat.
Head-to-Head Record
Historically, Sporting Covilha have dominated this fixture. In 13 meetings, they have won 9, drawn 3 and lost only once to UD Oliveirense. The most recent clash, on May 6 2023 in the Segunda Liga, ended in a 2-1 home win for Covilha. That head-to-head record offers the hosts some psychological encouragement despite current poor form.
League Table Positions
The Tercera Liga standings tell a contrasting story. UD Oliveirense sit 6th with 8 points after five matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), challenging for a promotion playoff spot. Sporting Covilha lie outside the top 12, the lowest-placed visible position, indicating a slow start and a battle to climb away from the bottom region.
Win Probability: Sporting Covilha or UD Oliveirense?
After combining bookmaker odds, recent form, head-to-head data, and league positions, we calculate the following outcome chances: Sporting Covilha win 25%, Draw 40%, UD Oliveirense win 35%. The odds markets, stripped of the bookmaker margin, give an average of 26.6% home win, 39.8% draw, and 33.6% away win. We adjust slightly in favour of UD Oliveirense because of their superior form and higher league standing, while respecting Covilha's historial home dominance. The draw remains the most probable single result, but the away side is the more likely team to claim victory.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market show home win odds of 3.75, the draw at 1.95, and an away win at 2.88. Those prices make it clear that the draw is seen as the most likely outcome. Based on the stats, the safest prediction is a draw or an away win. UD Oliveirense are the team to beat given their current momentum, but Sporting Covilha's historial edge and home advantage could force a stalemate. Value seekers may find the away win appealing given the form contrast, yet the draw cannot be ignored.
Sporting Covilha vs UD Oliveirense โ FAQ
- Who will win Sporting Covilha vs UD Oliveirense?
- UD Oliveirense are the more likely winner with a 35% probability. The draw, however, has a higher chance at 40% โ making it the most probable single result. Sporting Covilha have a 25% win probability.
- What is the win probability for UD Oliveirense?
- Our prediction model gives UD Oliveirense a 35% chance of winning the match. This reflects their stronger current form (three wins in the last five games) and a higher league position compared to a winless Sporting Covilha side.
- When is the Sporting Covilha vs UD Oliveirense match?
- The match kicks off on October 10, 2026 at 17:30 local time. It is a Tercera Liga fixture, Portugal's third-tier football division.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Leading bookmakers offer 1X2 odds of: Sporting Covilha 3.75, Draw 1.95, UD Oliveirense 2.88. These prices indicate the draw is the clear favourite in the market, with the away side considered slightly more likely to win than the hosts.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sporting Covilha and UD Oliveirense?
- In 13 previous meetings, Sporting Covilha have won 9 times, there have been 3 draws, and UD Oliveirense have won only once. The last clash, in May 2023, ended 2-1 to Sporting Covilha at home.