Nottingham Forest U21 - Sporting Lisbon B prediction 30 September 2026

Looking for a Nottingham Forest U21 vs Sporting Lisbon B prediction? This Premier League International Cup U21 clash kicks off on Sep 30 at 19:00. Based on our analysis, Nottingham Forest U21 has a 40% chance of winning, a draw stands at 30%, and Sporting Lisbon B has a 30% probability of victory.

Team Form

Nottingham Forest U21 come into this match with a solid recent record: D, W, W, L, W in their last five outings. That includes a 1-1 draw at Burton Albion in the EFL Trophy, a 3-1 away win at West Bromwich Albion U21, a 1-0 home victory over Burnley U21, a 2-1 loss at Scunthorpe United in the National League Cup, and a 2-1 home win against Manchester City U21. They have scored in four of those five matches and kept one clean sheet.

Sporting Lisbon B's last five results read L, W, W, L, W. They suffered a 2-1 home defeat to Lusitania Lourosa, then won 3-1 at CB Feirense, beat Farense 2-1 at home, lost 2-0 at Penafiel, and edged Chaves 1-0 at home. Both teams have three wins in their last five, but Nottingham Forest U21's draw gives them a slight edge in consistency.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest U21 and Sporting Lisbon B. This will be their first ever meeting, making historical comparisons impossible. The match outcome will depend entirely on current form and on-the-day performance.

Win Probability: Nottingham Forest U21 vs Sporting Lisbon B Prediction

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Nottingham Forest U21 win – 40%, draw – 30%, Sporting Lisbon B win – 30%. The base came from the inverse of the available odds (home 2.25, draw 3.60, away 2.55; home 2.05, draw 2.40, away 3.10; home 1.94, draw 1.44, away 1.44), normalized to remove bookmaker margins. The raw average implied probabilities were 36% for a home win, 32% for a draw, and 33% for an away win. We then adjusted for Nottingham Forest U21's home advantage and their slightly better recent form (one draw vs one extra loss for Sporting Lisbon B). The adjustment adds 4% to the home win probability, reducing draw and away chances equally. The result is a narrow edge for the home side, but the match remains highly competitive.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varied odds for this fixture. One set lists a home win at 2.25, a draw at 3.60, and an away win at 2.55. Another shows 2.05 for the home side, 2.40 for the draw, and 3.10 for the visitors. A third bookmaker has 1.94 for a Nottingham Forest U21 victory, with both the draw and Sporting Lisbon B win priced at 1.44. These odds reflect a market that sees the home team as a slight favourite, though the third set indicates a very tight contest.

Our prediction: based on the stats, Nottingham Forest U21 are the more likely winners, but a draw or an away upset cannot be ruled out. The 40% home win probability suggests value in backing the hosts if you can find odds above 2.50. With both teams showing similar recent form and no head-to-head history, a cautious approach is wise.