Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon prediction 30 October 2026
Casa Pia
Sporting Lisbon
Estrela AmadoraCasa PiaAlpendoradaCasa PiaCasa PiaSanta ClaraEstoril PraiaCasa PiaCasa PiaFC PortoVitoria GuimaraesCasa PiaCasa PiaMoreirenseGil VicenteCasa PiaCasa PiaBenficaMaritimoCasa PiaLeixoesCasa PiaCB FeirenseCasa PiaCasa PiaSCU TorreenseSCU TorreenseCasa PiaCasa PiaRio AveSporting LisbonAcademico ViseuSporting LisbonLASK LinzLensSporting LisbonBragaSporting LisbonSporting LisbonAroucaFamalicaoSporting LisbonSporting LisbonGalatasaraySporting LisbonNacional MadeiraRio AveSporting LisbonSporting LisbonAlvercaSporting LisbonVitoria GuimaraesEstrela AmadoraSporting LisbonSporting LisbonNottingham ForestSporting LisbonMonacoSporting LisbonStrasbourg| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50 | 2.75 | 1.67 | |
| 9.00 | 2.62 | 1.60 | |
| 9.70 | 2.72 | 1.55 | |
| 10.00 | 5.50 | 1.53 | |
| 9.25 | 2.65 | 1.53 | |
| 11.00 | 6.20 | 1.28 |
- 18Andres Geraldesdefender
- 77Benjamin Pauwelsforward
- 90Cassianoforward
- 43David Sousadefender
- 3Domingos Josรฉ Gabriel Bandeira Kalydefender
- 70Joao Regomidfielder
- 80Lawrence Oforimidfielder
- 11Mohamed Salah El Boukammiriforward
- 1Patrick Sequeiragoalkeeper
- 75Pedro Rosasdefender
- 24Seba Pรฉrezmidfielder
- 20Alassana Jatta
- 17Evans Maurin
- 44Felipe Silva
- 8Gabi
- 9Henrique Araรบjo
- 95Ivan Mandic
- 29Jeremy Livolant
- 4Joรฃo Goulart
- 98JP
- 27Kaique Rocha
- 19Kevin Prieto
- 16Selvi Clua Oya
- 58Flavio Goncalvesforward
- 25Gonรงalo Inรกciodefender
- 55Ibrahima Badefender
- 77Issa Doumbiamidfielder
- 22Ivรกn Fresnedadefender
- 30Kaique Pereiragoalkeeper
- 31Luis Guilhermemidfielder
- 97Luis Suarezforward
- 20Maximiliano Araรบjomidfielder
- 19Nestory Irankundaforward
- 5Sergi Altimiramidfielder
- 73Eduardo Felicissimo
- 72Eduardo Quaresma
- 7Fotis Ioannidis
- 10Geny Catamo
- 13Georgios Vagiannidis
- 28Jesse Derry
- 8Joรฃo Simรตes
- 18Moncef Zekri
- 21Pedro Lima
- 9Rafael Nel
- 1Rui Silva
- 4Silas Andersen
Sporting LisbonCasa PiaCasa PiaSporting LisbonCasa PiaSporting LisbonSporting LisbonCasa PiaCasa PiaSporting LisbonCasa PiaSporting LisbonSporting LisbonCasa PiaCasa PiaSporting Lisbon| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 |
| 3 | Sporting Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 |  Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela Amadora | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril Praia | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 |
Casa Pia vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction (Oct 30)
The Casa Pia vs Sporting Lisbon prediction for the Primeira Liga clash on October 30, 2026, points firmly towards an away victory. Sporting Lisbon enters this match as the overwhelming favorite, holding a calculated win probability of approximately 72%, while Casa Pia faces a tough challenge with just a 12% chance. The match at Estรกdio Pina Manique kicks off at 20:15.
Team Form
Casa Pia's recent form is inconsistent, with results showing two wins and three losses in their last five outings (W, W, L, W, L). They secured a 2โ0 away win at Estrela Amadora and a 1โ0 Cup victory at Alpendorada, but suffered a 1โ4 home defeat to FC Porto and a 0โ1 loss to Santa Clara. Sporting Lisbon, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five, recording two wins, two draws, and one loss (L, W, W, D, D). Notably, the loss was a 2โ3 home defeat to LASK Linz in the Champions League, while league form includes a 3โ1 win at Braga and draws against Arouca and Famalicao.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favors Sporting Lisbon. In eight previous meetings, Sporting Lisbon has won all eight encounters, with Casa Pia yet to record a win or even a draw. The most recent match on January 16, 2026, ended 3โ0 to Sporting Lisbon. Earlier results include an 8โ0 demolition in January 2024 and a series of 2โ0, 3โ1, and 2โ1 away wins for Sporting.
League Table Positions
Sporting Lisbon sits 3rd in the Primeira Liga with 18 points from 8 matches (5 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses), boasting a strong goal difference of +11. Casa Pia is not listed in the top 12 of the overall standings, but the away table shows them 8th with 7 points from 5 road games. In the away standings, Sporting Lisbon is 4th with 8 points from 4 matches, having scored 10 goals and conceded 4 on their travels.
Win Probability: Casa Pia or Sporting Lisbon?
Based on the provided odds, form, head-to-head dominance, and league positions, the calculated outcome probabilities are: Casa Pia win โ 12%, Draw โ 16%, Sporting Lisbon win โ 72%. The average inverse of the three bookmaker odds, normalized to remove the margin, gives Sporting Lisbon a foundational probability above 60%. This is adjusted upwards significantly due to their perfect 8-0 head-to-head record and superior recent form. Casa Pia's chance is limited to a shock result.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers mirror the on-paper gulf between the sides. The best available odds in the data show an away win for Sporting Lisbon at 1.25, a draw at 6.40, and a home win for Casa Pia as high as 14.50. Based on the stats, a Sporting Lisbon win is the most probable outcome, and the team is expected to continue their dominant run against Casa Pia.
Casa Pia vs Sporting Lisbon โ FAQ
- Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting Lisbon?
- Based on head-to-head data and current form, Sporting Lisbon is expected to win. The calculated probabilities are 72% for a Sporting Lisbon victory, 16% for a draw, and 12% for a Casa Pia win.
- What is the win probability for Sporting Lisbon?
- Sporting Lisbon has a 72% chance of winning against Casa Pia. This high probability is driven largely by their perfect 8โ0 head-to-head record and superior 3rd-place league standing.
- When is the Casa Pia vs Sporting Lisbon match?
- The match is scheduled for October 30, 2026, with a 20:15 kickoff time. It is a Primeira Liga fixture, held at Estรกdio Pina Manique in Lisbon.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds from the data show Sporting Lisbon as the clear favorite, with an away win priced as low as 1.25. A draw is offered at up to 6.40, while an unlikely Casa Pia home victory reaches as high as 14.50.