Sportivo Baradero - CA Mitre de San Pedro prediction 29 September 2026

Our Sportivo Baradero vs CA Mitre de San Pedro prediction for the Regional League match on September 29, 2026 at 23:00. Based on the latest odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, CA Mitre de San Pedro holds a slight edge with a 35% win probability, while Sportivo Baradero has a 30% chance and the draw stands at 35%.

Team Form

Sportivo Baradero’s last five results: W, L, L, W, L. The sequence includes:

• Sep 14: Sportivo Baradero 1‑0 Parana San Pedro (W)
• Sep 5: CA Mitre 1‑0 Sportivo Baradero (L)
• Oct 29 (2023): Deportivo Malvinas 2‑0 Sportivo Baradero (L)
• Jan 29 (2023): El Linqueno 1‑2 Sportivo Baradero (W)
• Jan 22 (2023): Sportivo Baradero 0‑4 El Linqueno (L)

They managed two victories but suffered three defeats, including a direct loss to today’s opponents. The older matches from Primera Nacional highlight long‑standing inconsistency.

CA Mitre de San Pedro’s last five: W, W, D, W, L. Their recent matches:

• Sep 5: CA Mitre 1‑0 Sportivo Baradero (W)
• Aug 31: Parana San Pedro 0‑1 CA Mitre (W)
• Mar 1: Racing Cordoba 0‑0 CA Mitre (D)
• Feb 22: CA Mitre 1‑0 CA Estudiantes Caseros (W)
• Feb 14: All Boys 2‑1 CA Mitre (L)

With three wins, one draw and only one loss in this stretch, CA Mitre enters the game in noticeably better shape. Their away performances have been solid – a win and a draw in the two most recent road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The sole previous meeting between these teams came just weeks ago, on September 5, 2026, in the same Regional League. CA Mitre de San Pedro won 1‑0 at home. Sportivo Baradero therefore has no wins and no draws in this fixture.

Win Probability: Sportivo Baradero or CA Mitre de San Pedro?

We derived the outcome probabilities by taking the inverse of the two available sets of 1X2 odds, normalizing them to remove the bookmaker margin, and then averaging the results. The raw averaged implied probabilities were 34.4% for a home win, 36.9% for a draw, and 28.8% for an away win. We then adjusted these figures based on current form and the head‑to‑head result.

Sportivo Baradero win: 30%
Draw: 35%
CA Mitre de San Pedro win: 35%

The logic behind the adjustment is clear: CA Mitre de San Pedro’s form is significantly better (three wins and a draw in the last five versus Sportivo’s two wins), and they have already beaten the same opponent 1‑0 this month. We therefore boosted the away win chance and slightly reduced the home win probability, while keeping the draw high because the Regional League often produces tight, low‑scoring games and the draw odds from one bookmaker were as short as 2.00.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available bookmaker odds for the match are:

• Home win 3.10, Draw 2.00, Away win 3.40
• Home win 2.25, Draw 3.10, Away win 2.88

The first set prices the draw as the most likely outcome (implied probability close to 45% after margin removal), while the second set leans slightly toward a home victory. Overall, the market sees no clear favourite.

Our final match prediction: CA Mitre de San Pedro has a marginal advantage and is the more probable winner if there is one, but the draw is an equally realistic option. Sportivo Baradero’s home advantage could help, but their recent form and the head‑to‑head defeat make an away win or a draw the two most likely scenarios.