Sportivo Baradero - Parana San Pedro prediction 14 September 2026

The Sportivo Baradero vs Parana San Pedro prediction for September 14, 2026, points towards a tight Regional League contest. Based on the latest odds and head-to-head record, Sportivo Baradero enters as the favorite, but the bookmakers' implied probabilities suggest a draw is a very real possibility. This preview breaks down the form, stats, and betting tips to determine who will win.

Team Form

Sportivo Baradero's recent form is a major concern. They have lost four of their last five matches (L, L, W, L, L), with their only win coming back in January 2023 against El Linqueno. Defensively, they have been fragile, conceding 10 goals in those five games, including a 4-0 home defeat.

Parana San Pedro's form is similarly poor, with a record of L, L, D, W, L in their last five outings. Their most recent match was a 1-0 home loss to CA Mitre de San Pedro in the Regional League. The away side has struggled for consistency, managing just one win in this five-game stretch.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is limited but decisive. In their only previous meeting, Sportivo Baradero secured a convincing 3-1 away victory against Parana San Pedro on November 5, 2022, in the Primera Nacional. This gives the home side a psychological edge and a 100% winning record in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Specific league table positions and points are not available in the current data set. However, both teams are competing in the Argentine Regional League, and their recent losing streaks indicate they are likely positioned in the lower half of the standings.

Win Probability: Sportivo Baradero or Parana San Pedro?

Calculating the win probability from the average odds (Home: 2.54, Draw: 2.17, Away: 3.75), we first remove the bookmaker margin. The implied probabilities are 39.4% for a home win, 46.1% for a draw, and 26.7% for an away win. Normalizing these to 100% gives a baseline. Adjusting for Sportivo Baradero's poor recent form but strong head-to-head record, we slightly downgrade the home win probability and upgrade the away chance. The final match outcome probabilities are:

• Sportivo Baradero win: 38%
• Draw: 42%
• Parana San Pedro win: 20%

The draw is the most likely single outcome based on the odds, but Sportivo Baradero has a higher chance of winning than Parana San Pedro.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a match where the home side has a slight edge, but the low draw odds are the standout feature. The best available odds for this match are Sportivo Baradero at 2.62, the draw at 2.20, and Parana San Pedro at 3.75. The unusually short price on the draw signals that a stalemate is a strong possibility. Based on the stats, the head-to-head dominance, and the odds, the prediction leans towards a double chance: Sportivo Baradero or Draw. The total goals are likely to be limited given both teams' struggles in front of goal.