Sportivo Desamparados - Union Villa Krause prediction 22 October 2026

Sportivo Desamparados vs Union Villa Krause prediction for this Regional League fixture on October 22 at 01:00. Based on the data, Sportivo Desamparados enters the match as the favorite with a calculated win probability around 45%, while the visitors sit at roughly 22%.

Team Form

Sportivo Desamparados shows solid recent results on home soil. Their last five home matches read W, W, D, D, L. Those wins include a 3-0 victory over San Carlos Mendoza on Oct 19 and a 2-0 win against General Belgrano on Sep 28. The draw against Sportivo Rivadavia de la Bebida San Juan (0-0 on Sep 24) and a 0-1 defeat to Atletico Penaflor on Nov 30 complete the sequence, giving them two clean-sheet wins in the last three outings.

Union Villa Krause travels with decent form, registering W, D, W, L, W across their last five away matches. Their most recent result was a 3-1 home win over Atletico Palmira on Oct 12, but the away results show a 0-0 draw at Sarmiento de Zonda on Sep 24 and a 2-0 win at General Belgrano on Sep 12. The 0-4 loss at FADEP in January stands out as a heavy defeat.

Head-to-Head Record

Union Villa Krause leads the historical H2H with 4 wins against 1 win for Sportivo Desamparados, alongside 4 draws. The most recent meeting, a Regional League clash on Dec 18, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw. In fact, three of the last five H2H games ended level. The earlier encounters heavily favor the away side: Union Villa Krause won 3-1 in August 2021 and 2-0 in January 2018, both in Cup competitions.

League Table Positions

The JSON data does not include current league table positions or points tallies for these teams, so we cannot report exact standings or gaps. The head-to-head and recent form remain the primary performance indicators for this Regional League fixture.

Win Probability: Sportivo Desamparados or Union Villa Krause?

Based on the provided odds and recent performances, the probabilities are calculated as follows: Sportivo Desamparados holds a 45% chance of winning, the draw sits at 33%, and Union Villa Krause has a 22% win probability. This estimation uses the inverse of the best available odds (home 1.95, draw 2.50, away 5.00) as the base, adjusted for the home side's stronger recent form at their own ground and the historical H2H trend favoring Union Villa Krause. The gap between the two sides narrows because of the visitors' favorable H2H record, but current momentum points to the home side.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Sportivo Desamparados as the clear favorite. The available 1X2 odds are 1.95 for a home win, 2.50 or 2.60 for the draw, and 4.75 or 5.00 for an away win. The short home price reflects the expectation that Sportivo Desamparados will control the match. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a home win or a draw, with a low probability given to an away victory. The final prediction leans toward Sportivo Desamparados to avoid defeat.