Sportivo Italiano Reserves vs CA Excursionistas Reserves prediction for the Primera B Metropolitana Reserve match on Oct 8, 2026. Based on head-to-head record and recent form, CA Excursionistas Reserves are slight favorites with a 35% win probability, while the draw is at 35% and Sportivo Italiano Reserves have a 30% chance.
Sportivo Italiano Reserves have struggled for consistency, with only one win in their last five matches (W1 D3 L1). Their most recent outing was a 0-0 draw against this same opponent on Oct 1. Before that, they drew 1-1 at Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves, beat Argentino de Merlo Reserves 2-0 at home, drew 1-1 at Villa San Carlos Reserves, and lost 1-2 at home to Deportivo Laferrere Reserves.
CA Excursionistas Reserves have a mixed form (W2 D1 L2). After the goalless draw with Sportivo Italiano Reserves, they suffered a heavy 0-3 home loss to San Martin Burzaco Reserves, but previously recorded two impressive away wins: 3-0 at Villa San Carlos Reserves and 3-2 at home against CSD Liniers Reserves. Their last five also include a 1-3 away defeat at Real Pilar Reserves.
These two sides have met three times in recent seasons. CA Excursionistas Reserves hold a clear advantage with two wins and one draw, while Sportivo Italiano Reserves are yet to win.
The head-to-head record strongly favours the away side, who have scored 4 goals and conceded only 1 in the two victories.
No odds are available for this match, so the win probabilities are estimated from recent form and head-to-head statistics. Home advantage gives Sportivo Italiano Reserves a boost, but their poor H2H record and inconsistent form limit their chances. CA Excursionistas Reserves have been more effective on the road and have dominated previous meetings.
Sportivo Italiano Reserves has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and CA Excursionistas Reserves has a 35% chance. The most likely outcome is a draw or an away win, reflecting the visitors' historical edge and the hosts' difficulty in securing victories.
Odds for this fixture are not available in the provided data. Bookmakers would typically price CA Excursionistas Reserves as marginal favourites given the head-to-head record, but the high frequency of draws in both teams' recent results would keep the draw odds relatively short.
Our prediction: based on the stats, a draw or a narrow win for CA Excursionistas Reserves is the most probable outcome. Sportivo Italiano Reserves will need to break their winless H2H streak to claim all three points.