Deportivo Laferrere - Sportivo Italiano prediction 26 September 2026

The Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano prediction for this Primera B Metropolitana clash on Sep 26 at 19:00 points to a tight contest. Based on the stats, the draw is the most probable outcome at 42%, with Sportivo Italiano holding a 31% win probability and Deportivo Laferrere at 27%.

Team Form

Deportivo Laferrere come into this match with a mixed run: one loss, three draws, and one win in their last five (L, D, D, D, W). Their most recent result was a 2-1 away defeat to San Martin Burzaco on Sep 19. Sportivo Italiano's form shows two wins, two losses, and a draw (D, L, W, W, L). They drew 0-0 at home against Brown De Adrogue on Sep 19, following a 1-0 away loss to Deportivo Armenio.

Head-to-Head Record

In 22 previous meetings, Deportivo Laferrere have won 7, Sportivo Italiano 4, with 11 draws. The last three encounters in Primera B Metropolitana all produced home wins: a 1-1 draw when Sportivo Italiano hosted in May 2026, a 1-0 home win for Sportivo Italiano in November 2025, and a 2-1 home victory for Deportivo Laferrere in June 2025.

League Table Positions

Sportivo Italiano sit 6th in the overall standings with 59 points from 36 games (16 wins, 11 draws, 9 losses). Deportivo Laferrere are 10th with 48 points (12 wins, 12 draws, 12 losses). Away from home, Sportivo Italiano rank 4th with 31 points from 18 games, while Deportivo Laferrere are 8th in the home table with 26 points from 18 matches.

Win Probability: Deportivo Laferrere or Sportivo Italiano?

Deportivo Laferrere has a 27% chance of winning, the draw is at 42%, and Sportivo Italiano has a 31% chance. These probabilities are derived from the bookmaker odds (home 3.45, draw 1.90, away 3.15), which imply a strong draw bias after removing the margin. The high number of draws in the head-to-head record (11 out of 22) and Deportivo Laferrere's recent three consecutive draws reinforce this. Sportivo Italiano's superior away form gives them a slight edge over the home side, but the data strongly favors a stalemate.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see the draw as the most likely outcome, pricing it at 1.90. A home win is at 3.45 and an away win at 3.15. Based on the stats, the match prediction is a draw. Sportivo Italiano's better league position and away record suggest they are the more likely winner if there is one, but the head-to-head history and Deportivo Laferrere's recent form point to a share of the points.