St. Patricks Athletic - Shelbourne prediction 16 October 2026

St. Patricks Athletic vs Shelbourne prediction for the Premier Division match on Oct 16, 2026, at 19:45. St. Patricks Athletic enter this game as the clear favorites with a 55% win probability, while Shelbourne have just a 20% chance of an away victory. The draw probability stands at 25%.

Team Form

St. Patricks Athletic are in strong form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. They secured a 1-0 win at Sligo Rovers, a 4-0 thrashing of Dundalk, and a 2-0 home victory over Shamrock Rovers. A 0-0 draw against Bohemians Dublin in the FAI Cup and a 0-2 home loss to Waterford United complete the sequence. The team has scored 7 goals and conceded just 2 in those five matches, showing defensive solidity.

Shelbourne's recent form is mixed: a 5-1 home win over Sligo Rovers, a 1-1 draw at SD Galway, and a 3-2 win at Dundalk were followed by back-to-back home defeats—1-2 against Drogheda United and 0-1 against Derry City. They have won twice, drawn once, and lost twice in their last five, scoring 10 goals but conceding 7.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head between these sides, the home team has won 11 times, there have been 5 draws, and the away team has won 10 times in 26 meetings. The last five encounters show St. Patricks Athletic with the upper hand: they won 2-1 at Shelbourne (Aug 2026), lost 0-1 at home (May 2026), won 3-2 at Shelbourne (Mar 2026), drew 0-0 at Shelbourne (Nov 2025), and won 2-0 at home in the FAI Cup (Aug 2025). So St. Patricks Athletic have claimed three wins in the last five, including the most recent clash.

League Table Positions

St. Patricks Athletic sit 2nd in the Premier Division with 59 points from 32 matches (17 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses). They have scored 52 goals and conceded only 25, boasting the best defensive record in the league. At home, they are 2nd with 33 points from 16 games (10 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses), scoring 31 and conceding just 10.

Shelbourne are 4th with 43 points from 33 matches (10 wins, 13 draws, 10 losses), with 47 goals for and 46 against. Their away form is respectable: 3rd in the away table with 26 points from 16 games (6 wins, 8 draws, 2 losses), scoring 22 and conceding 18. They are hard to beat on the road, but St. Patricks Athletic's home strength is formidable.

Win Probability: St. Patricks Athletic or Shelbourne?

Based on the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league standings, we calculate the following win probabilities: St. Patricks Athletic have a 55% chance to win, a draw has a 25% probability, and Shelbourne have a 20% chance. The bookmakers' odds imply a home win probability around 50% after removing the margin, but St. Patricks Athletic's superior league position, excellent home record (only 3 losses), and recent H2H dominance push that figure higher. Shelbourne's away resilience—only 2 losses in 16 away games—keeps the draw and away win probabilities alive, but the visitors' inconsistent form and lower table position make them underdogs.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds see St. Patricks Athletic as short as 1.48 to win, with the draw at 2.30 and a Shelbourne victory at 5.00. Other bookmakers offer 1.55 for a home win, 2.35–2.40 for the draw, and 4.75–5.00 for the away side. These odds reflect the market's confidence in the home team.

Our prediction: St. Patricks Athletic are the most likely winners, but a draw cannot be ruled out given Shelbourne's ability to grind out results on the road. A 2-0 or 2-1 home win looks a plausible scoreline.