Stabaek U19 - Lillestrom U19 prediction 17 September 2026

The Stabaek U19 vs Lillestrom U19 prediction for this NM Cup U19 clash on September 17, 2026, at 15:00 points towards a closely contested match. Based on the available data, Stabaek U19 enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Lillestrom U19 holds a 33% chance, leaving a 27% probability for a draw.

Team Form

Stabaek U19's recent form has been inconsistent, with a record of two losses, two wins, and one draw in their last five matches (L, L, W, W, D). Their most recent outing was a 4-2 home defeat against Fredrikstad U19 on August 6. Prior to that, they suffered a 2-1 away loss to the same opponent but had previously secured a 6-1 home win and a 2-1 home victory over Grorud U19.

Lillestrom U19 comes into this fixture in excellent form, having won four of their last five matches (W, W, W, W, L). They are on a four-game winning streak at home and away, including a dominant 4-1 win over Tromso U19 on August 26 and a 5-0 thrashing of Bodo/Glimt U19. Their only recent blemish was a 3-1 away loss to Aalesund U19 on July 28.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Stabaek U19 has won 6 times, Lillestrom U19 has won 4, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent encounter on September 9, 2022, saw Stabaek U19 secure a 1-0 home victory. However, Lillestrom U19 won the two prior matches, both by a one-goal margin, including a 4-3 thriller in August 2022.

League Table Positions

In the overall league standings, Lillestrom U19 sits in 1st place with 14 points from 6 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), while Stabaek U19 is close behind in 2nd with 13 points (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Stabaek U19 boasts a perfect home record, topping the home table with 9 points from 3 wins, scoring 17 goals and conceding only 2. Lillestrom U19 leads the away table with 7 points from 3 unbeaten matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding 5.

Win Probability: Stabaek U19 or Lillestrom U19?

After analyzing the available data, the win probabilities for this match are as follows: Stabaek U19 has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Lillestrom U19 has a 33% chance. This calculation is based on the implied probabilities from the bookmaker odds (home 2.30, draw 3.00, away 3.00), adjusted for Stabaek U19's perfect home record and Lillestrom U19's stronger recent form and higher league position. While the odds suggest a narrow home advantage, Lillestrom's momentum makes them a dangerous opponent.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set the odds at 2.30 for a Stabaek U19 win, 3.00 for a draw, and 3.00 for a Lillestrom U19 victory. Based on the stats, Stabaek U19's flawless home form makes them the marginal favorite, but Lillestrom U19's winning streak and top spot in the table cannot be ignored. The prediction is a highly competitive match where a draw is a realistic outcome, but Stabaek U19's home strength gives them a slight edge to secure the win.