Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC - Clermont prediction 16 October 2026

Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC vs Clermont prediction for this Ligue 2 fixture on October 16, 2026, at Stade Francis Le Basser. Based on the latest odds and recent form, a draw is the standout outcome with a 42% probability; Clermont hold a slight edge over the hosts to snatch a win at 30%, while Stade Lavallois’s chances sit at just 28%.

Team Form

Stade Lavallois come into this match in poor shape. In their last four Ligue 2 outings they have lost three – away at Pau (3-2), at Dijon (3-2) and at home to Red Star FC 93 (2-1). The only point in that league run was a 1-1 home draw against Sochaux. A friendly win over Rennes offers little comfort.

Clermont’s form is built on draws. They have drawn three of their last four Ligue 2 matches: 1-1 at Grenoble, 0-0 at home to Boulogne and 1-1 at USL Dunkerque. Their most recent result was a 3-2 home defeat by Red Star FC 93. The side is hard to beat but has won only once in that sequence.

Head-to-Head Record

Clermont hold a clear upper hand in recent meetings. The last five head-to-heads have produced three draws and two Clermont victories; Stade Lavallois have failed to beat Clermont in any of those games. The most recent clash, in January 2026, ended 4-1 to Clermont at their ground. The last time Clermont visited Stade Francis Le Basser (August 2025), the match finished 0-0.

League Table Positions

Based on the available standings, neither team appears in the Ligue 2 top 12. Both Stade Lavallois and Clermont are therefore positioned in the lower half of the table, indicating they are struggling for points and consistency – which fits the narrative of a tight, low-confidence encounter.

Win Probability: Stade Lavallois or Clermont?

Using the implied odds as a starting point – home win 2.15, draw 2.10, away win 3.40 – and removing the bookmaker margin, the raw probabilities were: Stade Lavallois 37.65%, draw 38.55%, Clermont 23.80%。 Adjusting for recent league form (Lavallois: L-D-L-L; Clermont: L-D-D-D) and the one-sided head-to-head record (0 wins for Lavallois in five), we have shifted weight towards the draw and the away side. Final win probabilities: Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC 28%, draw 42%, Clermont 30%. The draw is the most likely single outcome, but if a winner emerges, Clermont are the better bet.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers price the hosts as slight favourites – best odds around 2.15 for a home win, 2.10 for the draw and 3.40 for an away victory. The exceptionally short draw odds underline how evenly matched the two teams are perceived to be. However, our deeper dive into the form and H2H reveals a different picture: Stade Lavallois’s lack of wins against Clermont and their leaky defence make them vulnerable. Our prediction is a low-scoring draw, with the 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline looking the most likely. For those seeking betting value, backing the draw or the away side holds more appeal than the home win.