Sturm Graz - Marseille prediction 22 October 2026

The Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction for October 22, 2026, points to an away favorite in this UEFA Europa League clash. Based on the available odds and recent form, Marseille enters the match with a 46% win probability, while Sturm Graz has a 29% chance of victory, and a draw stands at 25%. The match kicks off at 17:45 local time at Merkur-Arena in Graz.

Team Form

Sturm Graz's recent form has been a rollercoaster, with results reading W, L, W, W, L in their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent outing was a dominant 6-1 home win against Grazer AK in the Bundesliga on October 18. However, their previous UEFA Europa League fixture ended in a 3-0 defeat away to Bournemouth. Before that, they secured league wins over Austria Wien and a friendly victory against Floridsdorfer AC, but suffered a 3-0 loss to Red Bull Salzburg.

Marseille's last five results show a similar pattern of W, L, W, L, L. They come into this match on the back of a high-scoring 5-2 away victory against Angers in Ligue 1. Their European form is a concern, with a 1-0 home loss to Olympiacos Piraeus and a heavy 4-1 defeat away to Besiktas. Domestic wins over Troyes and a narrow loss to PSG round out their recent fixtures.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no recorded head-to-head history between Sturm Graz and Marseille. The H2H record stands at 0 wins for Sturm Graz, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Marseille, meaning this will be the first competitive meeting between the two sides.

League Table Positions

League table positions are not provided in the available match data, so a direct comparison of their current standings in their respective domestic leagues or the Europa League group cannot be made.

Win Probability: Sturm Graz or Marseille?

Sturm Graz has a 29% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Marseille has a 46% chance. This calculation starts with the bookmaker odds, which strongly lean toward an away victory for Marseille. The inverse of the best available odds implies a raw probability heavily favoring the French side, and when normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, Marseille still emerges as a clear favorite. Their recent 5-2 away win in Ligue 1 demonstrates attacking firepower on the road, while Sturm Graz's 6-1 home win shows they are dangerous at Merkur-Arena. However, the contrasting Europa League results—Marseille's competitive losses against Olympiacos and Besiktas versus Sturm Graz's defeat to Bournemouth—add some uncertainty. The lack of head-to-head history injects unpredictability, but the overall profile gives Marseille the edge in chances to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Marseille as the favorite for this match. Odds from the market show a range, with the best available home win price at 3.78, a draw at 2.60, and an away win for Marseille as low as 2.08. Based on the stats, form, and betting market assessment, the tip leans toward an away victory, but Sturm Graz's home resilience means a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out. The most informed prediction for Sturm Graz vs Marseille is a win for the visiting side.