Suduva Marijampole - FK Kauno Zalgiris prediction 19 October 2026

The Suduva Marijampole vs FK Kauno Zalgiris prediction for October 19, 2026, sees the away side enter as the favorite in this A Lyga clash. Kick-off is at 16:45 local time. Based on our win probability model, FK Kauno Zalgiris has a 47% chance of victory, while Suduva Marijampole sits at 27% and the draw at 26%.

Team Form

Suduva Marijampole's recent form is poor, with their last five matches reading L, L, D, D, L. They have failed to win any of those games, most recently suffering a heavy 4-0 defeat away to Zalgiris Vilnius on October 10. A 0-0 home draw against the same opponent on September 13 remains their sole clean sheet in this run.

FK Kauno Zalgiris shows stronger momentum with a recent record of L, W, W, L, W. The losses came against strong opposition in Brighton (UEFA Conference League) and Zalgiris Vilnius. In their latest domestic outings, they recorded a commanding 3-0 cup win over Minija Kretinga and a professional 2-0 league victory at Siauliai Futbolo Akademija.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head record heavily favors the hosts, with Suduva Marijampole winning 31 meetings compared to FK Kauno Zalgiris' 12, alongside 10 draws. However, recent form in the fixture is split. Their last meeting on September 9, 2026, ended in a 5-1 thrashing for FK Kauno Zalgiris at home. Before that, Suduva won 2-1 at home in May 2026. Two of the last three A Lyga encounters have seen the home side on the day secure victory, a trend Suduva will be desperate to continue.

League Table Positions

The teams are neck-and-neck at the top of the A Lyga standings. FK Kauno Zalgiris leads the table with 51 points from 28 matches, boasting the division's best defensive record with only 20 goals conceded. Suduva Marijampole sits 3rd with 50 points from 29 games. The home table highlights a critical factor: Suduva Marijampole is unbeaten at home this season with 7 wins and 6 draws, while FK Kauno Zalgiris holds the 2nd-best away record with 23 points from 13 trips.

Win Probability: Suduva Marijampole or FK Kauno Zalgiris?

The probability is calculated by adjusting the normalized implied odds from bookmakers with key performance indicators. Averaging the six available bookmaker odds gives an average home win price, draw price, and away win price. The inverse of these odds, normalized to remove the margin, provides a baseline. We have then adjusted this baseline downwards for Suduva due to their current 5-game winless form and further adjusted the draw probability upwards given Suduva's unbreachable home record this season.

Suduva Marijampole win probability: 27%

Draw probability: 26%

FK Kauno Zalgiris win probability: 47%

FK Kauno Zalgiris is the more likely winner based on superior recent form and their position at the top of the league table, despite Suduva's historical H2H dominance and strong home performances this season.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a tight contest, but FK Kauno Zalgiris is the clear favorite. Across six bookmakers, the best available odds show the away win as low as 2.00. Suduva Marijampole's odds range from a high of 4.33 down to 3.50, reflecting their underdog status. The draw is a very real possibility, priced around 2.10, which aligns with the hosts' excellent home record but poor form.

Prediction: Based on the stats, we predict an FK Kauno Zalgiris win. Suduva's proud unbeaten home record is under immense threat from a team in significantly better form and with the division's stingiest defense. However, the value in the betting odds points towards a tight affair.