Jagiellonia Bialystok - Suduva Marijampole prediction 29 September 2026

The Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Suduva Marijampole prediction for the Friendly Clubs match on Sep 29, 2026, at 14:00 UK time points to a home win. Jagiellonia Bialystok enters as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while Suduva Marijampole has a 17% chance, and the draw stands at 33%. This forecast is based on the latest odds, team form, and the fact that the Polish side plays at home.

Team Form

Jagiellonia Bialystok’s recent results have been disappointing. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded one win and four losses (L, L, L, W, L). The sole victory came at home against Slask Wroclaw (2-1) in the Ekstraklasa on Sep 6. Since then, they suffered defeats to Lech Poznan (1-2), Wisla Krakow (0-2), Olympiacos Piraeus (1-2) in the Europa League, and Legia Warszawa (1-3). This poor run raises questions about their confidence heading into this friendly.

Suduva Marijampole, on the other hand, has shown more consistency in the Lithuanian A Lyga. Their last five outings produced two wins, two draws, and one loss (D, D, L, W, W). They drew 1-1 at FK Hegelmann Litauen and 0-0 at home against Zalgiris Vilnius, before a heavy 1-5 defeat at FK Kauno Zalgiris. However, they bounced back with back-to-back away wins: 2-1 at Transinvest and 2-1 at Siauliai Futbolo Akademija. The Lithuanian side appears to be in better form, though the level of opposition is lower.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head record between Jagiellonia Bialystok and Suduva Marijampole. This will be the first meeting between the two clubs, making historical data unavailable for this prediction.

Win Probability: Jagiellonia Bialystok or Suduva Marijampole?

Based on the odds, form, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Jagiellonia Bialystok win: 50%
• Draw: 33%
• Suduva Marijampole win: 17%

The bookmakers’ odds imply a 52.1% chance for a home win, but Jagiellonia’s recent slump (four losses in five) reduces that slightly. Suduva’s decent away form and two consecutive wins give them a slightly higher chance than the raw odds suggest. Still, the Polish Ekstraklasa side’s superior league quality and home pitch make them the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this Friendly Clubs match are: Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 1.73, a draw at 2.75, and Suduva Marijampole to win at 6.00. Bookmakers clearly see the home team as the favorite. Our Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Suduva Marijampole prediction leans towards a home victory, but the high draw probability suggests caution. Based on the stats, a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Jagiellonia is the most likely outcome, though a draw cannot be ruled out given both teams’ recent scoring patterns.