Tsuen Wan - Sun Hei prediction 11 October 2026

The Tsuen Wan vs Sun Hei prediction for October 11, 2026, in the Hong Kong Second Division League points towards Sun Hei as the favorite with a 42% win probability, compared to Tsuen Wan's 35% chance. This match kicks off at 08:30, and based on odds and recent form, a tight contest is expected.

Team Form

Tsuen Wan's recent form is poor, with four losses in their last five matches. Their last five results are: L, L, L, L, W. They suffered a 3-1 away defeat to Kwai Tsing on September 27 and a 3-1 loss at Wanchai Sports on September 13. Their only win in this stretch was an 8-1 home victory against Mutual Sparta Asia on May 10. Sun Hei's form is mixed with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five: W, L, L, D, W. They beat Wing Yee FC Easyknit Property 4-1 at home on September 27 but lost 1-0 at home to Kwun Tong on September 20 and 2-1 away to Wong Tai Sin on September 13.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, with Tsuen Wan winning that encounter. On April 6, 2025, Tsuen Wan defeated Sun Hei 2-1 at home in the Second Division League. The head-to-head record stands at 1 win for Tsuen Wan, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Sun Hei.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in the Hong Kong Second Division League. While exact current positions and points are not available in the provided data, Tsuen Wan's recent run of four defeats in five games suggests they are likely in the lower half of the table. Sun Hei's slightly better form indicates a mid-table standing, but no specific table gaps can be confirmed.

Win Probability: Tsuen Wan or Sun Hei?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, the calculated win probabilities are: Tsuen Wan has a 35% chance of winning, the draw is at 23%, and Sun Hei has a 42% chance. Sun Hei is more likely to win. These percentages are derived from the inverse of the odds (normalized to remove the bookmaker margin), adjusted for Tsuen Wan's poor recent form (1 win in 5) and Sun Hei's slightly better form (2 wins in 5), plus Tsuen Wan's historical head-to-head win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this match. One bookmaker lists odds of 3.25 for a Tsuen Wan win, 2.40 for a draw, and 2.40 for a Sun Hei win. Another provides 3.30 for the home win, 4.10 for the draw, and 1.75 for the away win. These odds suggest the market is divided but leans slightly towards Sun Hei. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a Sun Hei victory, but a draw cannot be ruled out given the discrepancy in draw odds.