Surkhon Termez - FK Kokand 1912 prediction 20 September 2026

The FK Kokand 1912 vs Surkhon Termez prediction for August 3, 2026, points to a tight Super League contest where the visitors hold a slight edge. Based on recent form and head-to-head dominance, Surkhon Termez enters with a 35% win probability, while FK Kokand 1912 sits at 32% and the draw at 33%. The match kicks off at 14:30 at Kokand’s home ground, with bookmakers initially leaning toward the hosts but the stats suggesting otherwise.

Team Form

FK Kokand 1912’s last five results read L, L, L, W, L — a single victory over Metallurg Bekabad in the Cup on May 20, 2026, surrounded by four defeats. Most recently, they fell 3-2 away to Dinamo Samarqand on July 29 and were thrashed 4-1 at home by AGMK Olmaliq on July 22. That leaky defence has conceded 10 goals in those five outings.

Surkhon Termez, by contrast, have won three of their last five (W, W, W, L, L). The sequence includes a 2-1 away win at Andijan on July 18 and a 2-0 home victory over Pakhtakor in the Cup on May 18. Their two recent losses — 2-1 at home to Dinamo Samarqand and 1-0 away to Xorazm FK Urganch — both came in the league, but the overall trajectory is more positive than the hosts’. The away side has scored in four of those five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

In 12 previous meetings, Surkhon Termez lead the H2H with 6 wins to FK Kokand 1912’s 5, with 1 draw. The last five encounters underline that dominance: Surkhon have won four, including a 3-1 home victory in April 2025, a 4-0 Cup rout in June 2023, and a 3-2 away success in October 2022. Kokand’s sole recent win was a 2-0 home result in August 2025. The head-to-head trend strongly favours the away side.

League Table Positions

Neither FK Kokand 1912 nor Surkhon Termez appear in the top 12 of the Super League standings provided. The table is led by Neftchi (35 points) and Pakhtakor (34 points). The absence of both teams from the upper half suggests they are likely in the lower reaches, making this a clash between two sides battling to climb the table. No exact positions or points are available for the two clubs.

Win Probability: FK Kokand 1912 or Surkhon Termez?

FK Kokand 1912 has a 32% chance of winning, the draw is at 33%, and Surkhon Termez has a 35% chance. The calculation starts from the average bookmaker odds (home 2.00, draw 2.31, away 3.88), which imply a 42.0%–36.3%–21.7% split after removing the margin. However, Surkhon’s superior recent form (three wins in five vs. Kokand’s one) and a 4-1 head-to-head edge in the last five meetings justify a significant adjustment. The draw also gets a boost because both sides have shown inconsistency. Overall, Surkhon Termez is the more likely winner, but the match is too close to call with high confidence.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see FK Kokand 1912 as the nominal favourite, with best home odds around 1.95 and a high of 2.08. The draw is offered between 2.00 and 3.27, while Surkhon Termez can be backed at 3.75 to 4.05. These odds reflect home advantage, but the raw stats paint a different picture. Based on the form and H2H data, the value may lie with the away side or the draw. Our FK Kokand 1912 vs Surkhon Termez prediction: a draw or a narrow Surkhon win appears the most likely outcome.