Otrant Ulcinj - Sutjeska prediction 24 October 2026

The Otrant Ulcinj vs Sutjeska prediction for this Montenegro 1 CFL clash on Oct 24 at 13:00 points towards a very tight contest. Bookmakers' odds suggest a draw is the most likely single outcome, but taking all data into account, Otrant Ulcinj holds a slight edge as the favorite with approximately a 42% win probability, boosted by their league-leading position and strong away form. Sutjeska, however, cannot be discounted with their solid defensive record.

Team Form

Otrant Ulcinj comes into this match with strong recent results in the 1 CFL, recording three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five league outings. Their attacking form has been impressive, scoring 10 goals across those five matches, including a 3-2 away win at Petrovac on Oct 19 and a 4-1 home victory against Jezero. Sutjeska's recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five competitive matches. They are tough to break down, with clean sheets in three of those five games, including a 0-0 draw at Buducnost Podgorica and a 4-0 home win against Bokelj Kotor on Oct 19.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met five times previously, with Sutjeska holding a slight historical advantage. The overall head-to-head record shows 2 wins for Sutjeska, 1 win for Otrant Ulcinj, and 3 draws. The most recent encounter, a 1 CFL match on Aug 15, 2026, ended in a decisive 4-1 away victory for Otrant Ulcinj. Before that, Sutjeska won 2-0 at home in May 2025.

League Table Positions

Otrant Ulcinj sits top of the 1 CFL table with 20 points from 11 matches, having scored 20 goals and conceded 14. Sutjeska is in second place with 18 points from 11 games, with a notably stronger defensive record of only 7 goals conceded. The home and away splits reveal contrasting strengths: Sutjeska is ranked 1st in the home standings with 12 points from 6 games, while Otrant Ulcinj boasts the league's best away record, ranked 1st with 12 points from 6 away matches. This sets up a fascinating battle between Sutjeska's strong home form and Otrant Ulcinj's impressive performances on the road.

Win Probability: Otrant Ulcinj or Sutjeska?

Based on the provided odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league standings, the calculated win probabilities are: Otrant Ulcinj has a 42% chance of winning, the draw has a 38% chance, and Sutjeska has a 20% chance. We derived this by first calculating the implied probabilities from the bookmaker odds (home 3.10, draw 2.00, away 3.50), removing the overround to find the true market expectation, which heavily favored the draw. We then adjusted these base figures by giving additional weight to Otrant Ulcinj for their league-leading position, superior recent away form, and dominant head-to-head win in the last meeting. Sutjeska's low probability reflects their underdog status in the market and a less dynamic attack, despite their home advantage.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds available show Otrant Ulcinj at 3.10, a draw at 2.00, and a Sutjeska win at 3.50. Bookmakers clearly see a stalemate as the most probable outcome, making it the favorite in the 1X2 market. However, based on the stats, the value may lie with the league leaders. Our Otrant Ulcinj vs Sutjeska prediction is for a closely fought match where Otrant Ulcinj's potent attack, which has already scored four goals past Sutjeska this season, gives them the edge to secure the win.