Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki - Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki prediction 18 September 2026

The Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki prediction for this III Liga clash on Sep 18, 2026, at 14:30 points to a tightly contested match. Based on the available data, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki enters as a slight favorite with a 38% win probability, while Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki holds a 32% chance, and the draw is at 30%. The close percentages reflect a historically even head-to-head record and inconsistent recent form from both Polish sides.

Team Form

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki's recent form shows a mixed bag with results reading L, L, D, W, W in their last five outings. Their most recent match on Sep 11 ended in a 4-2 away defeat to Zabkovia Zabki, following a 2-0 home loss to Troszyn. However, prior to that, they secured an away draw and back-to-back wins, including a 4-3 home victory over LKS Lodz II. Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki's form is similar, with a pattern of L, L, W, D, L. They are coming off a 1-0 home loss to Weszlo and a heavy 4-1 away defeat at Pelikan Lowicz, though they did manage a 2-1 home win against Warta Sieradz in late August.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is remarkably balanced. In 9 previous meetings, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki has 2 wins, Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki has 2 wins, and there have been 5 draws. The most recent encounter on May 17, 2026, saw Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki secure a 2-0 home victory. The three matches prior to that all ended in draws, with scores of 1-1, 2-2, and 3-3, highlighting how little separates these sides.

League Table Positions

In the III Liga standings, Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki sits in 10th place with 11 points from 8 matches, having scored 10 goals and conceded 9. Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki is just behind in 11th place with 10 points, but with a more attacking record of 17 goals scored and 18 conceded. On the road, Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki has collected 5 points from 4 away games, while Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki's home form is not explicitly listed in the top 8, suggesting they have struggled for consistency at their own ground.

Win Probability: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki or Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

After analyzing the odds, form, and head-to-head stats, the calculated win probabilities are: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki has a 32% chance. The base calculation started with the inverse of the best available odds (2.78 for a home win, 2.42 for the draw, 2.78 for an away win), which were then normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. Adjustments were made to favor the home side slightly due to their recent H2H win, but the overwhelming history of draws and both teams' poor recent form kept the probabilities very close. Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki is marginally more likely to win, but a stalemate is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are struggling to separate the two teams, with the best available odds showing a home win at 2.78, a draw at 2.42, and an away win also at 2.78. The tight odds reflect the competitive balance seen in the head-to-head record and league table. Based on the stats, the match prediction is a cautious one: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki has a slight edge as the home team, but the value may lie in the draw, given that 5 of the last 9 meetings have ended level. A low-scoring affair is anticipated, consistent with Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki's recent away form.