Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki - LKS Lomza prediction 25 September 2026

The Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza prediction for this III Liga clash on Sep 25, 2026 at 15:00 points to a home win. Based on recent form, head-to-head, and league positions, Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki has a 48% chance of winning, while the draw is at 27% and LKS Lomza at 25%.

Team Form

Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki come into this match with a mixed recent record: two wins, two losses and one draw in their last five outings. In their most recent match on Sep 18 they beat Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2-1 away. Before that they lost 0-1 at home to Weszlo and fell 1-4 at Pelikan Lowicz. A 2-1 home win over Warta Sieradz and a 0-0 draw at Wigry Suwalki complete the five. Overall, they've scored 5 goals in that span and conceded 6.

LKS Lomza's form is poor. Their last five results read: L, D, L, L, D. A 0-2 home defeat to Zabkovia Zabki on Sep 18 was followed by a 1-1 draw at Troszyn. Earlier they lost 1-2 home to Jagiellonia Bialystok II, fell 3-4 away to LKS Lodz II and drew 0-0 home with Mlawianka Mlawa. They have picked up just two points from those five games, scoring 5 and conceding 9. The away side has looked defensively vulnerable.

Head-to Head Record

These sides have met four times previously, with two home wins and two away wins – no draws. Swit won the most recent encounter 3-2 at home on May 13, 202 6. However, the two meetings before that went the way of LKS Lomza: 0-3 away on Oct 25, 2025 and 1-3 home on Mar 1, 2025. The earliest fixture, on Nov 11, 2023, saw Swit win 3-2 away. So home advantage has been decisive in three of the four games, with Swit winning both home fixtures.

League Table Positions

In the III Liga overall standings, Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki sit 9th with 14 points from 9 matches (4W, 2D, 3L). They've scored 12 and concedde 10. At home, they've played 4, won2, drawn0, lost2, with a goal difference of +3 (7 for, 4 against). LKS Lomza are not in the top 12 of the division, meaning they rank 13th or lower. Their away form is particularly weak: no wins in the last two away trips (a draw and a loss). The table underlies Swit's upper hand in terms of points and consistency.

Win Probability: Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki or LKS Lomza?

Our win probability calculation gives Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki a 48% chance of winning, a 27% probability of a draw, and LKS Lomza a 25% chance. This estimation is derived from the head-to-head home bias (Swit have won both home H2Hs), Swit's better recent form (7 points vs 2 from the last 5), and their higher league position. No bookmaker odds are available to anchor the figures, so the percentages are based purely on the available statistical indicators. The home side is the more likely winner, but the draw and an away upset remain realistic possibilities since LKS Lomza have won away at Swit before.

Odds & Match Prediction

At the time of writing, there are no odds listed for this III Liga fixture. Bookmakers have not released a 1X2 market. Based on the stats, the value pick would lean towards a Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki win, but with caution given the historical evenness of the head-to-head. A low-scoring game looks probable: Swit's home games average 2.75 total goals, while Lomza's recent matches have often seen both teams score. The match outcome is likely to be decided by a single goal if it doesn't end level.