Uzbekistan - Syria prediction 1 October 2026
Uzbekistan
Syria
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Our Uzbekistan vs Syria prediction for this Friendly International match on October 1, 2026, gives Uzbekistan a 45% chance of winning. The draw probability is 35%, while Syria has a 20% chance of causing an upset. Kick-off is at 15:00 local time.
Team Form
Uzbekistan's recent form is poor, with four losses in their last five matches (W, L, L, L, L). The only win came against Iran (3-1) on September 24, 2026. Defeats include a 3-1 loss to Congo DR, a 5-0 thrashing by Portugal, a 3-1 reverse to Colombia, and a 2-1 loss to the Netherlands. This run highlights defensive frailties, conceding 14 goals in those five games.
Syria's form is more resilient: three draws, one loss, and one win in their last five (D, D, D, L, W). They drew 1-1 with Jordan, 0-0 with Bahrain (twice), lost 4-1 to Belarus, and beat Afghanistan 5-1. Syria have been hard to beat, with three clean sheets in those five outings, suggesting a well-organized defense.
Head-to-Head Record
Uzbekistan and Syria have met three times, all in Friendly Internationals. Uzbekistan lead with 1 win and 2 draws; Syria are yet to win. The most recent meeting, on June 11, 2019, ended 2-0 to Uzbekistan. The two earlier matches (both on September 6, 2018) finished 1-1. Historically, Uzbekistan have the edge, but draws are common.
Win Probability: Uzbekistan vs Syria Prediction
Based on bookmaker odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities:
- Uzbekistan win: 45%
- Draw: 35%
- Syria win: 20%
Bookmakers' odds imply a higher home win probability (around 52%), but Uzbekistan's recent poor form and Syria's stubborn draws force a significant adjustment. Home advantage and historical dominance still make Uzbekistan the most likely winner, but a draw is a very realistic outcome.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers heavily favor Uzbekistan. The best available 1X2 odds are:
- Uzbekistan: 1.44 โ 1.52
- Draw: 2.02 โ 2.25
- Syria: 5.45 โ 7.00
These odds reflect Uzbekistan's status as the stronger side on paper, but the wide draw odds suggest value for those expecting a tight contest. Our prediction: Uzbekistan are the more likely winners, but given their leaky defense and Syria's recent resilience, backing the draw or a low-scoring affair could be smart betting tips. The match outcome is far from a foregone conclusion.
Uzbekistan vs Syria โ FAQ
- Who will win Uzbekistan vs Syria?
- Uzbekistan are the most likely winners with a 45% probability. The draw has a 35% chance, and Syria have a 20% chance of winning. These percentages are based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head data.
- What is the win probability for Uzbekistan?
- Uzbekistan have a 45% chance of winning. This is lower than the bookmakers' implied probability (around 52%) because their recent form has been poor, with four losses in the last five matches.
- When is the Uzbekistan vs Syria match?
- The match takes place on October 1, 2026, at 15:00 local time. It is a Friendly International fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Bookmakers offer odds around 1.52 for a Uzbekistan win, 2.02 for a draw, and 5.45 for a Syria win. Exact odds vary between bookies, with home win odds ranging from 1.44 to 1.52.
- What is the head-to-head record between Uzbekistan and Syria?
- The teams have met three times, all in friendlies. Uzbekistan won once (2-0 in 2019) and there were two 1-1 draws in 2018. Syria have never beaten Uzbekistan.