| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74:36 | +38 | 70 | |
| 2 | 33 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 83:53 | +30 | 65 | |
| 3 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 90:65 | +25 | 56 | |
| 4 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 86:67 | +19 | 53 | |
| 5 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 100:67 | +33 | 50 | |
| 6 | 34 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 77:64 | +13 | 50 | |
| 7 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 48:86 | -38 | 37 | |
| 8 | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 65:82 | -17 | 30 | |
| 9 | 34 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 30:133 | -103 | 13 |
The Tabasalu Jk Charma vs JK Narva Trans II prediction for this Esiliiga B match on October 19, 2026, at 17:00 clearly points towards an away victory. Based on odds and recent form, JK Narva Trans II enters as the heavy favorite, with an estimated win probability of 72%. Tabasalu Jk Charma, struggling near the bottom of the league table, has just an 18% chance to win at home.
Tabasalu Jk Charma is in a terrible run of form, failing to win any of their last five matches (0-1-4). Their recent results include a 2-1 loss to Parnu JK Vaprus II, a 2-1 home defeat to Tartu JK Tammeka 2, and a 4-1 thrashing at Tallinna Kalev II. The only point they salvaged was a 1-1 home draw against Tallinna JK Legion.
In stark contrast, JK Narva Trans II arrives with perfect momentum, having won all of their last five matches. This streak includes a 2-0 home win over FA Tartu Kalev, a 1-0 away victory at Johvi FC Phoenix, and consecutive 2-1 away wins against Tallinna JK Legion and Tallinna Kalev II. Their defense has been solid, conceding just one goal across their last four fixtures.
The head-to-head record favors JK Narva Trans II, who have won 4 of the 7 previous meetings. Tabasalu Jk Charma has won 3, with no draws recorded. The most recent encounters have been dominated by the away side. JK Narva Trans II won the last two clashes convincingly: 4-0 on Aug 29, 2026, and 5-0 on May 31, 2026. Tabasalu's last H2H victory was a 1-0 home win on May 6, 2026.
This is a mismatch according to the league table, though JK Narva Trans II's senior team notably does not appear in the standings. Tabasalu Jk Charma sits 8th with 33 points from 32 matches (10 wins, 3 draws, 19 losses). Their home form is slightly better, ranking 8th with 21 points from 14 home games. They have conceded 85 goals overall, showing a very leaky defense. The away team's recent winning run has been against mid-table and lower-half opposition.
Tabasalu Jk Charma has an 18% chance of winning, the draw is at 10%, and JK Narva Trans II has a strong 72% chance. This calculation uses the inverse of the average odds (home 7.71, draw 4.42, away 1.41) normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusted for the extreme form disparity. The home team's five-match winless run and heavy recent H2H defeats heavily reduce their chances, while the away team's five-match winning streak reinforces their favorite status.
Bookmakers see JK Narva Trans II as the clear favorite. The best available odds for an away win are as low as 1.20, while Tabasalu Jk Charma can be backed at a high of 9.33. The draw is priced around 6.00-6.26. Based on the stats, a comfortable away victory is the most likely outcome. The betting tips point towards a win for the visitors, given their perfect form and the 9-0 aggregate scoreline from the last two head-to-head meetings.