Parnu JK Vaprus II - Tabasalu Jk Charma prediction 14 October 2026

The Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Tabasalu Jk Charma prediction for October 14, 2026, in the Estonian Esiliiga B answers the question of who will win with a strong probability. Parnu JK Vaprus II are the clear favourites, holding a 65% win probability, while the draw is at 20% and Tabasalu Jk Charma have just a 15% chance. This conclusion is drawn from the latest odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league table positions.

Team Form

Parnu JK Vaprus II's last five matches (most recent first):

• Oct 11: Tallinna Kalev II 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus II (D)
• Sep 18: Parnu JK Vaprus II 12-0 Tallinna JK Legion (W)
• Sep 13: Parnu JK Vaprus II 0-4 FA Tartu Kalev (L)
• Sep 10: Parnu JK Vaprus II 2-3 Johvi FC Phoenix (L)
• Sep 6: Parnu JK Vaprus II 7-0 Tallinna Kalev II (W)

They have scored 22 goals in these five games, but also conceded 8, showing both explosive attacking and occasional defensive lapses. At home, they have recorded two huge wins (12-0 and 7-0) but also two defeats.

Tabasalu Jk Charma's last five:

• Oct 11: Tabasalu Jk Charma 1-2 Tammeka Tartu Reserves (L)
• Sep 19: Johvi FC Phoenix 3-2 Tabasalu Jk Charma (L)
• Sep 14: Tabasalu Jk Charma 1-1 Tallinna JK Legion (D)
• Sep 11: Tallinna Kalev II 4-1 Tabasalu Jk Charma (L)
• Sep 5: Tabasalu Jk Charma 3-2 Tammeka Tartu Reserves (W)

They have lost four of their last five, conceding 12 goals. Away from home, they have lost three of the last four, including a 4-1 thrashing.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met twice this season in Esiliiga B, both won convincingly by Parnu JK Vaprus II:

• Aug 24, 2026: Parnu JK Vaprus II 6-0 Tabasalu Jk Charma
• Jul 5, 2026: Tabasalu Jk Charma 2-8 Parnu JK Vaprus II

The aggregate score over the two games is 14-2. Parnu JK Vaprus II have scored at least six goals in each meeting, while Tabasalu Jk Charma have failed to keep the score respectable.

League Table Positions

In the overall Esiliiga B table, Parnu JK Vaprus II (appearing as Parnu JK Vaprus U21) are 6th with 47 points from 31 matches (14 wins, 5 draws, 12 losses). Tabasalu Jk Charma are 8th with 33 points (10 wins, 3 draws, 18 losses). The home side's home record is particularly impressive: 8 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses, with 57 goals scored and only 21 conceded in 14 home games. Tabasalu Jk Charma's away record is the worst in the league's top eight: 4 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses, 22 goals scored and 54 conceded in 17 away matches. That away fragility is a major factor in this prediction.

Win Probability: Parnu JK Vaprus II or Tabasalu Jk Charma?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Parnu JK Vaprus II win – 65%, draw – 20%, Tabasalu Jk Charma win – 15%. The bookmakers' average implied probability (after removing the margin) gave the home side a 59% chance, but the head-to-head dominance (14-2 aggregate) and the visitors' terrible away form (13 losses in 17 away games) justify an upward adjustment. Parnu JK Vaprus II are the most likely winners by a considerable margin.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds from bookmakers show Parnu JK Vaprus II at around 1.40 to win, the draw at 4.10, and an away victory for Tabasalu Jk Charma at 3.95. These odds confirm the home side's strong favourite status. Based on all available stats, the match prediction is a home win for Parnu JK Vaprus II, likely with a comfortable margin.