San Jose Earthquakes II - Tacoma Defiance prediction 12 October 2026

The San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance prediction for this MLS Next Pro matchup on Oct 12 at 01:00 favors the visitors despite San Jose's home advantage. Based on head-to-head dominance, recent form, and available odds, Tacoma Defiance has a 50% win probability, while San Jose Earthquakes II sits at 25%, with the draw at 25%.

Team Form

The hosts, San Jose Earthquakes II, show mixed results in their last five matches: W, W, L, L, W. A 4-0 home win over Real Maryland Monarchs and a 3-2 victory against Los Angeles II showcased their attacking potential, but they also conceded three goals in a 1-3 loss to Los Angeles Galaxy 2 Ventura County FC. The 1-2 home defeat to Tacoma Defiance on Sep 6 further highlights inconsistency.

Visitors Tacoma Defiance have a form line reading D, L, W, L, W. A 4-0 home thrashing of Sporting Kansas City II stands out, but heavy away defeats (3-0 at both Los Angeles Galaxy 2 and Real Maryland Monarchs) suggest travel can blunt their edge. Their most recent match was a 1-1 home draw with Portland Timbers II.

Head-to-Head Record

This fixture is overwhelmingly one-sided. Across 11 previous meetings, Tacoma Defiance have never lost to San Jose Earthquakes II, recording 7 wins and 4 draws. San Jose Earthquakes II have 0 wins. The last three meetings, all in 2026, ended: Tacoma Defiance 2-1 (Sep 6), Tacoma Defiance 1-0 (Jul 13), and a 0-0 draw when Tacoma hosted (Mar 15). Tacoma Defiance have kept a clean sheet in three of the last five head-to-heads.

League Table Positions

Neither side appears in the top 12 of the overall MLS Next Pro standings in the provided data, suggesting both are positioned in the mid-to-lower tier. The limited available table data includes top sides like Austin II (63 points) and Crown (60 points), meaning San Jose Earthquakes II and Tacoma Defiance sit outside the playoff picture, making this a contest where momentum and personal bragging rights carry extra weight.

Win Probability: San Jose Earthquakes II or Tacoma Defiance?

After analyzing the odds, recent results, and historical data, we assign the following probabilities: Tacoma Defiance win – 50%, Draw – 25%, San Jose Earthquakes II win – 25%. The odds imply a home-favoring distribution (1.85–1.83 range), but we heavily adjust for Tacoma's 7-4-0 head-to-head edge and San Jose's two losses in that same personal series this season. Home advantage boosts San Jose's chances slightly, but Tacoma Defiance's psychological edge and 50% win rate in the last six head-to-heads tip the balance clearly toward the away side.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds around 1.83–1.85 for a San Jose Earthquakes II win, 2.50–3.80 for the draw, and 3.25–3.60 for a Tacoma Defiance victory. The market sees the hosts as marginal favorites, but the raw H2H record (7 away wins for Tacoma) combined with San Jose's 0 wins in this series forces a different assessment. Based on the stats, Tacoma Defiance are more likely to win, and the away win at odds around 3.40 represents strong value against a side they have historically dominated. A 2-1 away victory mirrors their September result and fits both teams' recent scoring and conceding trends.