Shabab Al Sahel - Tadamon Sour prediction 8 October 2026

This Shabab Al Sahel vs Tadamon Sour prediction previews the Lebanon Premier League match on October 8, 2026, at 13:00. According to our analysis, Shabab Al Sahel have a 52% chance of winning, while Tadamon Sour's win probability is just 22%, with the draw at 26%.

Team Form

Shabab Al Sahel come into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five outings: a 0-0 draw at Jwaaya FC (Jul 2), a 4-2 loss at Al Ahed (Jun 28), a 3-0 home win over Reyady Abaseya (Jun 24), a 2-0 home win against Racing Beirut (Jun 16), and a 0-1 home defeat to Safa Beirut (Jun 12). That's two wins, one draw, and two losses. At home, they have been solid, winning three of their last five at their own ground.

Tadamon Sour's recent form is similarly patchy. In their last five matches, they lost 2-1 at Reyady Abaseya (Jul 29), beat Racing Beirut 1-0 at home (Jul 21), drew 0-0 at home with Reyady Abaseya (Jul 17), won 3-1 at Racing Beirut (Jul 10), and lost 0-3 at home to Al Ansar Beirut (Jul 3). That's two wins, one draw, and two losses. On the road, they have managed only two wins in 11 league games, scoring just 7 goals.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record favors Shabab Al Sahel: 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in 12 meetings. In the last five encounters, Shabab Al Sahel won twice, Tadamon Sour won once, and two games ended in draws. The most recent match on January 31, 2026, saw Shabab Al Sahel secure a 2-1 away victory. At this venue, the last four H2H matches produced two Shabab Al Sahel wins (2-0 in March 2024, and a 0-0 draw in September 2023) and two goalless draws (September 2025 and September 2023). Tadamon Sour's only away win in this fixture came in January 2025 (2-0).

League Table Positions

Shabab Al Sahel currently occupy 7th place in the Premier League with 27 points from 21 matches (7W 6D 8L). They have scored 22 goals and conceded 21. Tadamon Sour are 10th with 17 points (3W 8D 10L), netting only 12 times and conceding 26. The home/away splits highlight the gap: Shabab Al Sahel are 6th in the home table with 19 points from 11 games (5W 4D 2L), conceding just 6 goals. Tadamon Sour rank 8th in the away table with 10 points from 11 trips (2W 4D 5L), scoring 7 and conceding 13.

Win Probability: Shabab Al Sahel or Tadamon Sour?

Based on the odds, form, and historical data, we have calculated the following win probabilities for this Shabab Al Sahel vs Tadamon Sour clash:

• Shabab Al Sahel win: 52%
• Draw: 26%
• Tadamon Sour win: 22%

The bookmakers' implied probability (after removing the margin) gives Shabab Al Sahel around 47%, but we have adjusted it upward due to their strong home defensive record and Tadamon Sour's poor away form. The head-to-head history also supports a home win, though Tadamon Sour have forced draws in two of their last four visits, keeping the draw probability at a significant 26%.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are 1.91 for a Shabab Al Sahel win, 3.30 for the draw, and 3.50 for a Tadamon Sour victory. Some bookmakers offer slightly different lines (1.90, 3.20, 3.55), but the market clearly sees the home side as favorites. Considering all stats, our Shabab Al Sahel vs Tadamon Sour prediction is a home win, likely with a low scoreline such as 1-0 or 2-0. For betting tips, backing Shabab Al Sahel to win and under 2.5 goals could offer value given both teams' low scoring records. A draw is the second most probable outcome, while an away win would be a surprise.