Tallinna Kalev - Flora Tallinn II prediction 18 September 2026

The Tallinna Kalev vs Flora Tallinn II prediction for this Esiliiga clash on Sep 18 at 14:30 points towards a closely contested match. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and league standings, Flora Tallinn II enters as the slight favorite with a 38% win probability, while Tallinna Kalev has a 35% chance and the draw stands at 27%.

Team Form

Tallinna Kalev's recent form is a concern, with the team failing to win any of their last five matches (D, L, D, L, L). They have managed just two draws in that run, including a 0-0 stalemate away at FC Maardu on Sep 13 and a 1-1 home draw against Tartu JK Welco Elekter on Sep 05. Defeats to Nomme United 2 (2-1) and a heavy 5-0 loss to Flora Tallinn II on Aug 29 highlight their struggles.

Flora Tallinn II's form is more mixed but shows greater attacking threat (L, W, L, W, D). They secured an impressive 5-1 away win at JK Nomme Kalju 2 on Sep 10, but suffered a 6-2 defeat at Levadia Tallinn II on Sep 04. Most recently, they lost 2-1 at home to Elva on Sep 13. Their ability to score goals, with 70 in 29 league games, makes them dangerous.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Flora Tallinn II. In the last 12 meetings across all competitions, Flora Tallinn II has won 5, Tallinna Kalev has won 2, and there have been 5 draws. The most recent encounter was a one-sided affair on Aug 29, 2026, where Flora Tallinn II thrashed Tallinna Kalev 5-0. Earlier in the 2026 Esiliiga season, Flora Tallinn II also won 3-1 away and 4-1 at home, demonstrating a clear psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Flora Tallinn II sits 3rd in the Esiliiga table with 47 points from 29 matches, firmly in the promotion mix. They have scored 70 goals and conceded 51. Tallinna Kalev is 7th with 36 points from 28 games, having scored 50 and conceded 53. The 11-point gap reflects the difference in consistency. Away from home, Flora Tallinn II has collected 22 points (6 wins, 4 draws), while Tallinna Kalev has earned 14 points on their travels, though they are the home side here with a slightly better home record of 22 points from 14 games.

Win Probability: Tallinna Kalev or Flora Tallinn II?

After analyzing the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Tallinna Kalev has a 35% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Flora Tallinn II has a 38% chance. This assessment is based on the implied odds from bookmakers (home 2.62, draw 2.88, away 2.62), which were normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted for Flora Tallinn II's dominant head-to-head record (5-0, 3-1, 4-1 wins in 2026) and superior league position. Tallinna Kalev's poor recent form (no wins in five) reduces their home advantage, making Flora Tallinn II the more likely winner, though the match is expected to be competitive.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a very even contest. The best available odds show a home win for Tallinna Kalev at 2.62, a draw at 2.88, and an away win for Flora Tallinn II at 2.62. Based on the stats, Flora Tallinn II's recent dominance in this fixture and their higher league standing give them a narrow edge. Our prediction leans towards an away win, but with both teams showing inconsistent form, a draw is a strong possibility. A bet on both teams to score could also be worth considering, given that both sides have been involved in high-scoring games recently.