Tallinna Kalev - JK Nomme Kalju II prediction 29 October 2026

The Tallinna Kalev vs JK Nomme Kalju II prediction points to a comfortable home victory in this Esiliiga clash on October 29, 2026, at 17:00. Based on the stats, Tallinna Kalev enters as the clear favorite with a 72% win probability.

Team Form

Tallinna Kalev's recent form is poor, with four losses and one draw in their last five matches. They fell 3-2 to Tartu JK Welco Elekter, lost 2-1 at home to Levadia Tallinn II and Viimsi MRJK, were beaten 3-2 by Elva in the Cup, and managed a 2-2 home draw against Flora Tallinn II. JK Nomme Kalju II is in even worse shape, with four defeats and a single draw. A 2-1 home loss to FC Tallinn, a 0-0 stalemate with Elva, a 1-0 defeat at Levadia Tallinn II, a 3-2 home loss to Nomme United 2, and a 3-0 thumping by Tartu JK Welco Elekter make up their last five results.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Tallinna Kalev. In their three previous meetings, all in the Esiliiga, the home side has won all three. Tallinna Kalev crushed JK Nomme Kalju II 5-1 at home in June 2026, and recorded 4-0 and 3-0 away wins in April and August 2026 respectively. The aggregate score across those three games is 12-1 in favor of Tallinna Kalev.

League Table Positions

In the Esiliiga overall standings, Tallinna Kalev sits 8th with 37 points from 32 matches (10 wins, 7 draws, 15 losses). JK Nomme Kalju II is bottom in 10th place with just 24 points from 34 games (6 wins, 6 draws, 22 losses). Tallinna Kalev has a 13-point advantage and a game in hand. At home, Tallinna Kalev ranks 7th with 23 points from 17 fixtures. JK Nomme Kalju II's away form is not listed in the top eight, underlining their struggles on the road.

Win Probability: Tallinna Kalev or JK Nomme Kalju II?

After analyzing the odds, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Tallinna Kalev has a 72% chance of winning, the draw is at 17%, and JK Nomme Kalju II has an 11% chance. The odds imply home win probability of around 69% after removing the bookmaker margin, but Tallinna Kalev's perfect H2H record and JK Nomme Kalju II's terrible away form add further confidence in the favorite. The league table gap of 13 points also supports a home win as the most likely match outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Tallinna Kalev as the strong favorite, offering odds of 1.30 for a home win. The draw is priced at 5.35, and an away victory for JK Nomme Kalju II at 5.90. Combining the odds analysis with the team form, the commanding H2H record, and the standings, all signs point towards a Tallinna Kalev win. Based on the stats, our prediction is a home victory for Tallinna Kalev.