Tallinna Kalev - Levadia Tallinn II prediction 19 October 2026

The Tallinna Kalev vs Levadia Tallinn II prediction for the Esiliiga clash on October 19, 2026 at 16:00, points toward a closely contested match but with Levadia Tallinn II holding a clear edge based on recent form and head-to-head record. Based on our analysis of the latest stats, Levadia Tallinn II has a 47% win probability, while Tallinna Kalev sits at 31%, leaving a 22% chance for the draw.

Team Form

Tallinna Kalev enters this match in poor shape, failing to win any of their last five outings (0W, 2D, 3L). Their last five results show two defeats, followed by two draws and another loss (L, L, D, D, L). At home most recently, they fell 1-2 to Viimsi MRJK and drew 2-2 with Flora Tallinn II, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Levadia Tallinn II, by contrast, are flying high with four wins and one draw in their last five (W, W, W, D, W). They have been particularly impressive going forward, netting 13 goals in these five matches. In their most recent fixture on October 14, they secured a solid 1-0 home win against JK Nomme Kalju II, keeping a clean sheet.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record between these two sides favors Tallinna Kalev, who have 7 wins to Levadia Tallinn II's 4, with 1 draw overall. However, recent encounters tell a different story. The last three meetings, all in 2026, were all won by the away sides. Levadia Tallinn II won 3-2 away in July and 2-1 away in May, while Tallinna Kalev lost 2-3 at home in April in a match where Levadia Tallinn II were the nominal 'away' side, indicating Levadia Tallinn II have found a successful formula against Kalev in 2026.

League Table Positions

In the Esiliiga overall standings, Levadia Tallinn II sit 5th with 47 points from 31 games, while Tallinna Kalev are 7th with 37 points from 30 games – a 10-point gap. Looking at home/away splits, Tallinna Kalev are 7th in the home table (23 points from 16 games), whereas Levadia Tallinn II rank 5th in the away table with 21 points from 15 games, boasting a strong 7 wins on the road. This suggests Levadia Tallinn II are more than capable of securing a result away from home.

Win Probability: Tallinna Kalev or Levadia Tallinn II?

Our calculated win probability for this Esiliiga encounter is: Tallinna Kalev 31%, draw 22%, Levadia Tallinn II 47%. This assessment is primarily driven by the stark contrast in recent form – Levadia Tallinn II's 13 points from the last 15 available versus Tallinna Kalev's 2, combined with Levadia's two consecutive away H2H wins in 2026. While Tallinna Kalev hold a superior overall H2H record, recent trends and current momentum heavily favor the visitors, making Levadia Tallinn II the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available odds from bookmakers reflect the competitive but tilted nature of this fixture. The odds from various bookmakers show a tight range, with the best home win price around 2.32, the draw as high as 4.85, and an away win around 2.41. These odds imply a value opportunity on the in-form away side. Based on the stats, form, and match context, the prediction leans towards an away win for Levadia Tallinn II, who appear best positioned to exploit Tallinna Kalev's struggles and extend their impressive run.